Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Friday, January 2, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ZHANG Manyao 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 10%
2 ARANGO Ivanna 100% 100% 98% 89% 64% 29% 6%
3 CHANG Kelly 100% 100% 99% 91% 69% 35% 8%
3 RADELL Zoe 100% 100% 95% 78% 45% 15% 2%
5 YAO Elizabeth 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 9%
6 VU Claire 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 36% 8%
7 MAZZURCO Marin 100% 98% 88% 61% 28% 7% 1%
8 NORRIS Phoebe 100% 96% 79% 46% 17% 3% -
9 SADHU Mira 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 1% -
10 HONG Eden 100% 100% 96% 81% 52% 20% 3%
11 CHEN Jolene 100% 99% 89% 65% 32% 9% 1%
12 PAVONY Arya 100% 76% 37% 11% 2% - -
13 CHANG Eleanor 100% 100% 99% 92% 72% 37% 9%
14 MAZZURCO Sydney 100% 96% 76% 41% 12% 2% -
15 JEON Karis 100% 92% 64% 29% 8% 1% -
16 JAVIER Jordan 100% 84% 48% 17% 3% - -
17 SUN claire 100% 98% 84% 54% 22% 5% -
18 LIN Martina 100% 94% 71% 37% 12% 2% -
19 GREENHOUSE Harper 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 33% 7%
20 WANG Emily 100% 99% 95% 77% 46% 16% 3%
21 D'AMELJ Ludovica 100% 97% 81% 49% 19% 4% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.