Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div I-A Men's Saber

Friday, January 2, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ELARABY Mazen - - - - 5% 95%
2 YAN William - - - 4% 19% 42% 35%
3 TE VELDE Noah C. - - - - 2% 23% 74%
3 SU Landon - - - 1% 13% 52% 34%
5 ARIAS Cesar A - - 1% 11% 38% 50%
6 FILATOV Aleksandr - 2% 11% 32% 39% 16%
7 JI Johnson 1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 7% -
8 LEHMAN Matthew 10% 30% 35% 19% 5% 1% -
9 EYSTER Edison - 3% 26% 44% 24% 3% -
10 SHANKAR Karthik 1% 11% 30% 36% 19% 3%
11 LIN Felix - 1% 8% 24% 37% 25% 5%
12 ANDRADE VARGAS Jose Ricardo - - 4% 18% 39% 34% 5%
13 DECK Tyson - 1% 11% 31% 39% 17%
14 TOSCANO Sebastian 5% 26% 44% 22% 3% -
15 FENG Brendan 1% 9% 30% 37% 19% 4%
16 BENSON Jacob 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 5% -
17 MOON Noah 26% 44% 24% 5% 1% -
18 WANG Ziyao 34% 45% 18% 2% - -
19 RINALDI Savio - 2% 21% 44% 29% 4% -
20 DOARES Andrew - - - < 1% 6% 45% 48%
21 WASCO Andrew - 4% 29% 44% 21% 2% -
22 BRESLOW Frederick M. 1% 6% 23% 37% 26% 7% -
23 YADAV Lakshya 1% 9% 29% 38% 20% 4%
24 ROBLES Julio C. - 1% 7% 35% 55% 2%
25 REHM Liam 8% 29% 37% 21% 5% -
26 TSAO Oliver 2% 11% 30% 36% 18% 3%
27 KANE Kiran 20% 45% 28% 6% - -
28 LIU Guanyu 19% 39% 30% 11% 2% -
29 BRIDGEMAN Andrew T. - 2% 12% 29% 35% 19% 3%
30 BIALIK Noah 13% 36% 34% 14% 2% - -
31 PARCELL Colby 6% 25% 37% 25% 7% 1%
32 TSAO Alister 11% 31% 35% 18% 5% 1% -
33 SZULIM Rad 5% 22% 37% 27% 9% 1% -
34 BURGESS-LINDEN Ian 7% 25% 36% 24% 8% 1% -
35 YADAV Ajay 58% 37% 5% - - - -
36 SALMAN Hamzah 1% 10% 36% 42% 11% -
37 SU Ji 20% 40% 29% 10% 1% - -
38 ELLIS Bremmen 25% 58% 16% 2% - - -
39 LIU Jayden 23% 43% 26% 7% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.