Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Friday, January 2, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 HAN Jayden 100% 100% 99% 88% 51% 12% 1%
2 PARK Joshua 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 64% 7%
3 LIANG Anker 100% 100% 95% 69% 29% 6% -
3 HAN Owen 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 15%
5 CHEN Jesse 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 30% 5%
6 DAYAL Dax 100% 100% 97% 84% 51% 14%
7 CHOI Christian 100% 100% 95% 66% 24% 3% -
8 DUDLEY William 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 62% 10%
9 NIU Charlie 100% 99% 91% 62% 24% 4% -
10 LIU Kyle 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 32%
11 SHOEMAKER-TRINH Kai 100% 93% 65% 28% 6% 1%
12 FORBES Xavier 100% 99% 91% 64% 27% 5%
13 JOSEPH Reuben 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 55%
14 CREANGA Matthew 100% 93% 61% 22% 3% - -
15 GOEL Sanav 100% 79% 23% 3% - - -
16 WOOD Theodore 100% 93% 62% 23% 4% - -
17 TAKAHASHI Genya 100% 94% 69% 32% 8% 1%
18 STANSBURY Malcolm 100% 77% 36% 9% 1% -
19 GERELUS Grant 100% 65% 23% 4% - - -
20 WILK Aaron 100% 42% 6% - - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.