Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHANG Parker	-	-	-	-	2%	21%	78%
2	ZHUANG Disheng (Eddie)	-	2%	26%	59%	13%
3	ZHANG Aaron	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	LIN Lucas	-	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
5	ZHAO David	-	-	1%	9%	31%	44%	15%
6	ROPER Griffin	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
7	HU Michael	-	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
8	ZHONG Kingsley	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
9	TIAN Andy	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	17%
10	LI Andrew	-	-	2%	12%	38%	43%	6%
11	BRADY David	1%	6%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
12	CHEN Keegan	1%	8%	34%	44%	13%
13	HAN Jiaren	-	8%	35%	45%	12%
14	FANG Ryan	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-
15	DAVE Neil	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
16	DENG Jonathan	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
17	ZHANG Eric	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
18	XIA Wenhao	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%	2%
19	LIU KUNDE	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%	-
21	XIONG Jeffrey	6%	52%	34%	7%	-
22	ZHENG Vincent	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	6%
23	WU Yulen	-	4%	19%	38%	32%	7%
24	LU Ethan	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
25	GENG Vincent	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
26	PELLERIN Liam	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
27	FOMIN Dashiell	4%	25%	44%	23%	3%
29	WANG Grant	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
30	BLAIS julian	5%	25%	39%	25%	6%	1%	-
31	WANG Timothy	12%	44%	35%	9%	1%
32	XU Jaden	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
33	BHOSREKAR Som	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
34	STARK Ethan	-	2%	11%	33%	40%	14%	1%
35	TANAKA Nico	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
36	RAY William	1%	8%	26%	38%	22%	5%	-
37	SCHNEIDER Aiden	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
37	WILSON Henry	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
39	LECH Landon	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	4%
40	CUI Jason	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
41	MENZEL Lucas	2%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
41	SALERNO A.J.	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
41	LIU KELVIN	50%	39%	10%	1%	-
44	THAKKAR Advait	-	2%	21%	52%	24%
45	LI Ethan	7%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-	-
46	ZARAYSKI Thomas	25%	41%	26%	7%	1%	-
47	RENSHAW Hunter	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
48	XU Terry	1%	26%	44%	24%	5%	-
49	WENG Jingfan	37%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
50	SINGH Deven	85%	15%	1%	-	-
51	OGILVIE Marsden	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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