Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 CUELLAR Markus - - 1% 8% 26% 41% 25%
2 ALEXANDER Jacksen - 1% 7% 22% 35% 27% 8%
3 KOGAN Yelisey L. 1% 9% 27% 36% 22% 5%
3 ZUNIGA Carlos Andres Flores - 3% 12% 28% 33% 20% 5%
5 FIAMINGO Francisco - - - 1% 7% 34% 59%
6 WANG Kaiyan - - 2% 12% 30% 37% 18%
7 CASH William Li 2% 16% 35% 32% 13% 2% -
8 ARZT Nicholas - 4% 17% 35% 33% 12%
9 BAYUS Oliver 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 1%
10 TARCHICHI Robby - - 3% 14% 32% 35% 15%
11 MARISI Gabriel - 1% 5% 21% 41% 31%
12 WANG Eason - 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 6%
13 LEECH Braedan - - 4% 20% 40% 31% 5%
14 LEE Henry - 5% 19% 35% 31% 10%
15 STRAFFORD Andrew 5% 22% 36% 27% 9% 1%
16 URIA Sullivan 2% 15% 34% 32% 13% 2% -
17 ZHANG Eric I. - 6% 27% 41% 22% 4%
18 MCCABE Kian 1% 7% 23% 35% 25% 8% 1%
19 RAMEY Daylon 2% 13% 32% 34% 16% 3%
20 EDGECOMB Michael J. - - 3% 17% 43% 38%
21 OSHIMA Robert 2% 11% 29% 35% 19% 3%
22 CARNALL Hunter - 5% 22% 37% 28% 7%
23 EVANS George - 1% 9% 28% 40% 20% 2%
24 BROSNAN Solomon 1% 6% 20% 34% 27% 11% 2%
25 ABU-AJAJ Mohamed 7% 27% 36% 23% 7% 1%
26 BANG Dylan 3% 19% 35% 30% 12% 2%
27 JARRATT Isaac 5% 33% 40% 19% 3% -
28 HERDMAN Julian 1% 11% 29% 35% 19% 4%
29 LORENZ Nathan 15% 37% 33% 13% 2% -
30 KIM Zac 2% 14% 32% 33% 15% 3%
31 SAAD Peter 10% 32% 36% 18% 4% 1% -
32 CANDELARIA Armando - 4% 17% 35% 33% 11%
33 DELONG Mike - 2% 12% 31% 38% 17%
34 NALLICHERI Ayaan - 6% 22% 37% 27% 8%
35 GANZY Ethan - 2% 14% 36% 37% 11%
36 BATISTA Julian 4% 21% 36% 28% 10% 1%
37 MCCLEAN III Walter F. - 5% 19% 35% 31% 11%
38 VELLALA Avinash - 1% 5% 19% 35% 30% 10%
39 EVANS Joseph 1% 9% 24% 33% 23% 8% 1%
40 HALE Bradley 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
41 KONG Ethan 11% 33% 35% 17% 4% -
42 PERI Mourya 14% 34% 32% 15% 4% - -
42 SCORDINSKY Liam 2% 11% 27% 33% 21% 6% 1%
44 KHAW-BRIOT Julien 4% 21% 36% 27% 10% 2% -
45 CHONG Eden 27% 41% 24% 7% 1% -
46 SOVA Thomas 1% 7% 24% 38% 25% 5%
47 BUI Ryan 1% 16% 40% 32% 10% 1%
48 ZAKHAROV Konstantyn 53% 37% 9% 1% - -
49 BEUTLER Andreas 5% 25% 38% 25% 8% 1%
50 CHAU Collin - 1% 6% 22% 37% 27% 7%
51 SALLAI Abel 9% 32% 37% 18% 4% - -
52 SACKETT Gavin 26% 42% 24% 7% 1% - -
53 PETROVSKI Kiril 22% 39% 28% 10% 2% - -
54 SAAD Noah 7% 25% 35% 23% 8% 1% -
55 TAURMAN Jr. Patrick J. 10% 32% 35% 18% 5% 1% -
56 PRABHU Srinish 25% 41% 25% 7% 1% -
56 CHOI Joshua 71% 26% 3% - - -
58 CHIU Sebastian 32% 42% 20% 4% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.