Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 LI Xier 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 54%
2 MEGGERS Arya 100% 100% 97% 80% 44% 11%
3 HAGERMAN Siona 100% 100% 94% 71% 33% 6%
3 KWON Allison 100% 85% 46% 13% 1%
5 ZHANG Sophia 100% 99% 89% 60% 23% 3%
6 KWON Claire 100% 100% 96% 76% 34% 3%
7 ZUNIGA Sol Alejandra Flores 100% 93% 64% 25% 5% -
8 QI Chelsie 100% 100% 98% 88% 56% 16%
9 CHANG Hannah 100% 98% 86% 54% 16%
10 MORET Teagan 100% 91% 54% 18% 3% -
11 AXELROD Charlotte 100% 100% 99% 92% 65% 23%
12 KIM Kate 100% 98% 81% 43% 10%
13 CHAN Faith Sum Yin 100% 91% 58% 21% 4% -
14 KIM Lina 100% 80% 40% 11% 1% -
15 BURKE Claire 100% 100% 94% 72% 34% 7%
16 SILVA Hailey 100% 99% 89% 56% 16%
17 NAPOLI Eleanor 100% 96% 75% 34% 7% -
18 KELLY Evelyn 100% 73% 30% 6% -
19 KIM Kaylin 100% 65% 22% 4% - -
20 CHI Evelyn 100% 90% 57% 21% 4% -
21 FEDINATZ Anna 100% 99% 90% 58% 19% 2%
22 WANG Jenny wang 100% 69% 26% 5% - -
23 COSTLOW Alexandra 100% 100% 93% 68% 29% 5%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.