Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 1:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	O'DONNELL Breck	-	-	-	2%	21%	78%
2	SMITH Finnley	-	2%	13%	39%	42%	5%
3	SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad	-	-	-	3%	15%	39%	43%
3	PRUT Anton	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
5	KUBBA Krish	2%	12%	30%	33%	18%	5%	< 1%
6	ZHANG Ethan	1%	5%	17%	32%	30%	13%	2%
7	MOE Annan	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
8	TARCHICHI Robby	-	-	3%	17%	44%	36%
9	GRACEY Gavin	-	6%	26%	41%	23%	4%
10	SINGH Meet	1%	9%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
11	HARWOOD Gray	3%	15%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
12	SONG HAN GYEOL	-	1%	8%	23%	36%	26%	6%
13	TARCHICHI Daniel	4%	19%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
14	TAM Kyle	-	1%	8%	31%	44%	17%
15	GALVAN Omar	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
16	GRIEB Oliver	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
17	ZHANG Julian	1%	16%	40%	34%	9%	-
18	PARK Jubin	4%	28%	42%	22%	4%	-
19	GODIN Willis	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	1%
20	ELSAYED Ahmed	9%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%	-
21	BAZZLE Christopher E.	4%	28%	42%	23%	4%	-
22	LEE Hans	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
23	KHAW-BRIOT Kai	21%	40%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
24	STANSBURY Desmond	2%	21%	41%	29%	6%	-
25	MAHNKEN Thomas P.	1%	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%
26	TINGLE Byrd	6%	33%	40%	17%	3%	-
27	NEGLEY Royce	8%	27%	34%	22%	7%	1%	-
28	MORENO Peter	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
29	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	< 1%	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
30	NEWELL Tim	22%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
31	ERTZBERGER Joel	6%	23%	34%	25%	9%	2%	-
32	JENKINS Michael	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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