Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 1:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 O'DONNELL Breck 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 78%
2 SMITH Finnley 100% 100% 98% 85% 47% 5%
3 SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 43%
3 PRUT Anton 100% 100% 98% 87% 55% 16%
5 KUBBA Krish 100% 98% 86% 56% 23% 5% < 1%
6 ZHANG Ethan 100% 99% 95% 77% 45% 15% 2%
7 MOE Annan 100% 100% 99% 94% 70% 27%
8 TARCHICHI Robby 100% 100% 100% 97% 80% 36%
9 GRACEY Gavin 100% 100% 93% 68% 27% 4%
10 SINGH Meet 100% 99% 90% 66% 32% 9% 1%
11 HARWOOD Gray 100% 97% 82% 50% 18% 4% -
12 SONG HAN GYEOL 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 6%
13 TARCHICHI Daniel 100% 96% 77% 44% 16% 3% -
14 TAM Kyle 100% 100% 99% 91% 61% 17%
15 GALVAN Omar 100% 81% 40% 10% 1% -
16 GRIEB Oliver 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 24%
17 ZHANG Julian 100% 99% 82% 43% 9% -
18 PARK Jubin 100% 96% 68% 26% 4% -
19 GODIN Willis 100% 95% 71% 32% 7% 1%
20 ELSAYED Ahmed 100% 91% 61% 26% 6% 1% -
21 BAZZLE Christopher E. 100% 96% 69% 27% 4% -
22 LEE Hans 100% 99% 91% 68% 35% 10% 1%
23 KHAW-BRIOT Kai 100% 79% 40% 11% 2% - -
24 STANSBURY Desmond 100% 98% 77% 35% 7% -
25 MAHNKEN Thomas P. 100% 99% 93% 68% 29% 5%
26 TINGLE Byrd 100% 94% 61% 20% 3% -
27 NEGLEY Royce 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 1% -
28 MORENO Peter 100% 45% 9% 1% - -
29 DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel 100% 100% 99% 90% 65% 30% 6%
30 NEWELL Tim 100% 78% 35% 8% 1% -
31 ERTZBERGER Joel 100% 94% 70% 36% 11% 2% -
32 JENKINS Michael 100% 36% 5% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.