Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 LIN Felix - 1% 5% 20% 42% 32%
2 SU Landon - - - 2% 23% 74%
3 BENSON Jacob - 5% 24% 41% 26% 5%
3 LIU Guanyu 2% 15% 33% 33% 15% 2%
5 FENG Brendan - 1% 8% 26% 41% 25%
6 DECK Tyson - - 2% 15% 42% 41%
7 MOON Noah 5% 25% 37% 25% 8% 1%
8 CHANG Ethan 2% 13% 32% 35% 16% 3%
9 BREUER Daniel - 5% 25% 41% 24% 4%
10 JI Johnson - 1% 10% 36% 45% 7%
11 LEUNG Arthur 29% 42% 23% 6% 1% -
12 D'AMELJ Edoardo 3% 29% 43% 21% 3% -
13 PERRIN Leo 1% 12% 38% 38% 11% -
14 TOSCANO Sebastian 2% 21% 43% 28% 5% -
15 WANG Max - 6% 22% 38% 28% 7%
16 REHM Liam 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 6%
17 HOWERTON Beckett 33% 42% 20% 5% 1% -
18 BUKZIN Alan 3% 17% 35% 32% 13% 2%
19 PARCELL Colby - 5% 25% 40% 25% 5%
20 ELLIS Bremmen 46% 42% 11% 1% - -
21 BIALIK Noah 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
22 MATTINGLY Ian 8% 29% 37% 21% 5% -
23 MICHALSKI Brandon 77% 21% 2% - - -
24 WANG Ziyao 21% 49% 25% 5% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.