Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 LIN Felix 100% 100% 99% 95% 74% 32%
2 SU Landon 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 74%
3 BENSON Jacob 100% 100% 95% 71% 31% 5%
3 LIU Guanyu 100% 98% 83% 50% 17% 2%
5 FENG Brendan 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 25%
6 DECK Tyson 100% 100% 100% 98% 83% 41%
7 MOON Noah 100% 95% 70% 33% 8% 1%
8 CHANG Ethan 100% 98% 85% 53% 19% 3%
9 BREUER Daniel 100% 100% 94% 69% 29% 4%
10 JI Johnson 100% 100% 99% 89% 52% 7%
11 LEUNG Arthur 100% 71% 29% 6% 1% -
12 D'AMELJ Edoardo 100% 97% 68% 25% 3% -
13 PERRIN Leo 100% 99% 87% 49% 11% -
14 TOSCANO Sebastian 100% 98% 77% 34% 6% -
15 WANG Max 100% 100% 94% 72% 35% 7%
16 REHM Liam 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 6%
17 HOWERTON Beckett 100% 67% 26% 5% 1% -
18 BUKZIN Alan 100% 97% 81% 46% 14% 2%
19 PARCELL Colby 100% 100% 95% 70% 29% 5%
20 ELLIS Bremmen 100% 54% 12% 1% - -
21 BIALIK Noah 100% 98% 87% 56% 21% 3%
22 MATTINGLY Ian 100% 92% 63% 26% 6% -
23 MICHALSKI Brandon 100% 23% 2% - - -
24 WANG Ziyao 100% 79% 31% 6% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.