Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 2:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TANG Alexander L. - - 3% 17% 42% 38%
2 TANG Albert - - 1% 7% 34% 59%
3 COZINE Owen N. - 3% 14% 34% 35% 14%
3 DOELL Ethan - - - 5% 25% 47% 23%
5 ZOBEL Eric H. - - - 1% 11% 43% 45%
6 JOSEPH Willem - - - 3% 19% 45% 34%
7 HUANG Eythan 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 5%
8 YAP Nathan - 5% 22% 38% 28% 6%
9 SHIN Noah - 1% 13% 42% 33% 10% 1%
10 SHENG Dalton 1% 9% 29% 37% 21% 4%
11 GRISWOLD Abel B. - 3% 16% 35% 34% 12%
12 HUA Aaron - 2% 13% 36% 40% 9%
13 PECK Quinn 1% 11% 32% 36% 17% 3%
14 ZHANG Julian 8% 38% 39% 14% 2% - -
15 SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad 2% 18% 37% 31% 11% 1%
16 GORDON Jacob 4% 26% 39% 24% 7% 1%
17 TARCHICHI Robby - 4% 23% 42% 26% 5% -
18 WOOD Alexander W. - - - 3% 21% 51% 25%
19 METZ Mason 3% 20% 38% 29% 9% 1%
20 GODIN Willis 22% 42% 28% 7% 1% -
21 ZAIDI Adil - 2% 12% 36% 38% 11% 1%
22 ZHANG Ethan 8% 35% 42% 13% 1% - -
23 MORENO Peter 59% 34% 7% 1% - - -
24 SMITH Finnley 2% 16% 37% 34% 11% 1%
25 TAM Kyle 3% 19% 39% 31% 8% 1%
26 SINGH Meet 20% 46% 28% 5% - - -
27 ELSAYED Ahmed 37% 46% 16% 1% - - -
28 SONG HAN GYEOL 57% 34% 8% 1% - -
29 KUBBA Krish 21% 43% 28% 7% 1% -
30 HARWOOD Gray 55% 36% 9% 1% - -
31 NACU Robert < 1% - 3% 23% 48% 23% 3%
32 DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel 3% 24% 43% 24% 5% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.