Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 2:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TANG Alexander L. 100% 100% 100% 97% 80% 38%
2 TANG Albert 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 59%
3 COZINE Owen N. 100% 100% 97% 83% 49% 14%
3 DOELL Ethan 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 70% 23%
5 ZOBEL Eric H. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 88% 45%
6 JOSEPH Willem 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 78% 34%
7 HUANG Eythan 100% 99% 91% 63% 26% 5%
8 YAP Nathan 100% 100% 95% 73% 35% 6%
9 SHIN Noah 100% 100% 99% 86% 44% 11% 1%
10 SHENG Dalton 100% 99% 90% 62% 25% 4%
11 GRISWOLD Abel B. 100% 100% 97% 81% 46% 12%
12 HUA Aaron 100% 100% 98% 85% 48% 9%
13 PECK Quinn 100% 99% 87% 56% 20% 3%
14 ZHANG Julian 100% 92% 54% 15% 2% - -
15 SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad 100% 98% 80% 43% 12% 1%
16 GORDON Jacob 100% 96% 70% 32% 8% 1%
17 TARCHICHI Robby 100% 100% 95% 73% 31% 5% -
18 WOOD Alexander W. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 76% 25%
19 METZ Mason 100% 97% 77% 39% 10% 1%
20 GODIN Willis 100% 78% 36% 8% 1% -
21 ZAIDI Adil 100% 100% 98% 87% 51% 12% 1%
22 ZHANG Ethan 100% 92% 57% 14% 1% - -
23 MORENO Peter 100% 41% 7% 1% - - -
24 SMITH Finnley 100% 98% 82% 45% 12% 1%
25 TAM Kyle 100% 97% 78% 39% 9% 1%
26 SINGH Meet 100% 80% 34% 5% - - -
27 ELSAYED Ahmed 100% 63% 17% 1% - - -
28 SONG HAN GYEOL 100% 43% 9% 1% - -
29 KUBBA Krish 100% 79% 36% 8% 1% -
30 HARWOOD Gray 100% 45% 10% 1% - -
31 NACU Robert 100% 100% 100% 97% 74% 26% 3%
32 DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel 100% 97% 72% 29% 5% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.