Sword in the Cake

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Bay Regional Fencing Alliance - Freeland, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 SAYLOR Nathaniel - 5% 39% 44% 13%
2 KENDALL Chris - 4% 23% 46% 27%
3 HOLDORF LE GOFF Bianca 1% 10% 31% 36% 18% 3%
3 OXIE Matthew 1% 10% 35% 40% 14%
5 ASIALA Niilo 9% 30% 37% 19% 4% -
6 MYERS Courtney 1% 8% 29% 41% 20%
7 CALAY Robert J. - 2% 12% 31% 38% 17%
8 KLINE Silas - 2% 23% 50% 25%
9 JACOBS Matthew 7% 29% 40% 21% 3%
10 BAKKE Alexander 1% 7% 25% 37% 25% 6%
11 KRAMER Emery 17% 39% 32% 11% 1%
12 HEWITT Lisa M. 50% 41% 9% 1% -
13 STEMLER Tyler 1% 8% 25% 37% 24% 5%
14 ALSTROM Lillian 14% 39% 35% 11% 1%
15 PEREZ Breanna 29% 60% 10% 1% -
16 EDWARDS Jeffrey E. 29% 43% 22% 5% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.