Sword in the Cake

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Bay Regional Fencing Alliance - Freeland, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 SAYLOR Nathaniel 100% 100% 95% 56% 13%
2 KENDALL Chris 100% 100% 96% 73% 27%
3 HOLDORF LE GOFF Bianca 100% 99% 89% 58% 22% 3%
3 OXIE Matthew 100% 99% 89% 55% 14%
5 ASIALA Niilo 100% 91% 61% 24% 5% -
6 MYERS Courtney 100% 99% 91% 62% 20%
7 CALAY Robert J. 100% 100% 98% 86% 55% 17%
8 KLINE Silas 100% 100% 98% 75% 25%
9 JACOBS Matthew 100% 93% 63% 23% 3%
10 BAKKE Alexander 100% 99% 93% 68% 30% 6%
11 KRAMER Emery 100% 83% 45% 12% 1%
12 HEWITT Lisa M. 100% 50% 10% 1% -
13 STEMLER Tyler 100% 99% 91% 66% 29% 5%
14 ALSTROM Lillian 100% 86% 47% 12% 1%
15 PEREZ Breanna 100% 71% 11% 1% -
16 EDWARDS Jeffrey E. 100% 71% 28% 6% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.