Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 HWANG Matthew - - 3% 13% 31% 37% 16%
2 DU Evan - - 1% 8% 34% 57%
3 LEE Lucas - 1% 5% 18% 33% 31% 12%
3 DENG Destin - 1% 7% 25% 40% 25% 3%
5 RONG Gordon - - - 1% 8% 36% 55%
6 BERTEL Florian - - 3% 13% 31% 37% 16%
6 GUO Luke - - - 2% 15% 43% 39%
8 WONG Aaron - - 1% 6% 25% 43% 26%
9 FU Nolan - - - 1% 6% 33% 60%
10 WANG Lucas 1% 7% 23% 36% 26% 7%
11 LIN Bryan 1% 10% 28% 35% 21% 5% -
12 XUE Michael - - 1% 5% 20% 42% 33%
13 CHEN Jayden - - - 2% 14% 39% 44%
14 OR Anson - 1% 9% 27% 37% 22% 4%
15 NGUYEN Ethan V. 2% 12% 31% 36% 17% 2%
16 ENG Kyler - 2% 10% 26% 35% 22% 4%
17 SCHWARTZMAN Ethan - - 2% 13% 35% 37% 13%
18 PARRA Lucas - - 1% 10% 32% 42% 15%
19 WU Nathan - - 3% 13% 32% 37% 16%
20 BALUCAN Caelus 1% 10% 28% 36% 21% 5%
21 GONZALEZ-KUSHNER Elian - 5% 27% 39% 23% 6% 1%
22 SHIH Derek - 2% 15% 36% 34% 12% 1%
23 MAI Sy 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 2% -
24 TAVERNA Matteo 4% 19% 35% 29% 12% 2% -
25 RONG Marcus - 1% 6% 20% 36% 29% 8%
26 YU Haoyun 3% 15% 31% 31% 16% 4% -
27 CHIEN Ian 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
28 HUA Nolan - 1% 8% 27% 40% 22% 3%
29 NUGENT Curtis - 4% 18% 34% 30% 12% 2%
30 WONG Vansen - 4% 16% 30% 31% 16% 3%
31 YU Brandon 2% 15% 34% 34% 13% 1%
32 KIM Leejay 1% 8% 25% 36% 24% 6%
33 OLIVAS Joseph - 1% 6% 21% 39% 29% 5%
34 ONG David 1% 5% 18% 31% 29% 14% 3%
35 YOON Ian 1% 9% 30% 37% 19% 4% -
36 SHOURIE Neel 2% 13% 29% 33% 18% 5% -
37 SUN Jiarui (Jerry) - 1% 6% 24% 40% 26% 4%
38 LIU Yihong - 2% 11% 29% 37% 19% 3%
39 CHAN JR Jason - 4% 16% 34% 33% 12%
40 WONG Kyle 1% 11% 31% 37% 18% 2%
41 YUN Nicholas 1% 9% 30% 37% 19% 4% -
42 RAHMAN Ali - 1% 9% 29% 38% 20% 4%
43 YUN Mason 25% 42% 25% 7% 1% -
44 YIM Antonio 3% 14% 30% 32% 17% 4% -
45 LAU Caleb 3% 15% 31% 31% 16% 4% -
46 PARK Sean 6% 24% 36% 25% 7% 1% -
47 FU Benjamin - 2% 16% 37% 32% 12% 1%
48 LIU Aiden 9% 28% 34% 21% 7% 1% -
49 SHOURIE Seth 1% 10% 26% 33% 22% 7% 1%
50 SZETO Zachary 5% 22% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
50 ELARDO Griffin 7% 24% 34% 24% 9% 1% -
52 KIM Hayden 5% 23% 35% 26% 9% 2% -
53 LIN Daniel - 2% 11% 26% 34% 22% 5%
54 CHU Clayton 12% 32% 33% 17% 5% 1% -
55 PARADKAR Akshay 3% 17% 34% 31% 12% 2% -
56 LO Stefan 13% 34% 34% 16% 3% - -
57 KONG William 11% 35% 35% 16% 3% -
58 TOUSSAINT Wizard 12% 34% 34% 16% 3% -
59 LIU William 11% 32% 35% 18% 4% - -
59 LI Guanhua 2% 15% 32% 32% 15% 3% -
61 KOU Mason 2% 12% 28% 33% 20% 6% -
62 HAN Alex - 2% 16% 38% 33% 10% 1%
63 GUO Jonathan 21% 40% 28% 9% 2% -
65 GONG Rongtao 33% 49% 16% 2% - - -
66 HUANG Eason 1% 8% 32% 38% 18% 3% -
67 SGOUROS Keane 6% 22% 33% 26% 11% 2% -
68 LI Connor 17% 37% 31% 12% 2% - -
69 BROWN Sean 11% 39% 35% 13% 2% - -
70 ZHAO Luke 12% 32% 33% 18% 5% 1% -
71 TAN Yichen 38% 47% 13% 1% - - -
72 LU Mark 41% 47% 11% 1% - - -
73 YE Andrew 37% 41% 18% 4% - - -
74 MULDER Chasen 1% 8% 29% 37% 20% 5% -
75 KOU Logan 36% 51% 12% 1% - - -
76 EVANS Harvey 52% 39% 9% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.