Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 HWANG Matthew 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 54% 16%
2 DU Evan 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 57%
3 LEE Lucas 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 43% 12%
3 DENG Destin 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 28% 3%
5 RONG Gordon 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 55%
6 BERTEL Florian 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 54% 16%
6 GUO Luke 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 82% 39%
8 WONG Aaron 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 68% 26%
9 FU Nolan 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 60%
10 WANG Lucas 100% 99% 92% 69% 33% 7%
11 LIN Bryan 100% 99% 89% 61% 26% 6% -
12 XUE Michael 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 75% 33%
13 CHEN Jayden 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 44%
14 OR Anson 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 26% 4%
15 NGUYEN Ethan V. 100% 98% 87% 55% 19% 2%
16 ENG Kyler 100% 100% 98% 88% 62% 26% 4%
17 SCHWARTZMAN Ethan 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 50% 13%
18 PARRA Lucas 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 57% 15%
19 WU Nathan 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 16%
20 BALUCAN Caelus 100% 99% 89% 61% 25% 5%
21 GONZALEZ-KUSHNER Elian 100% 100% 95% 68% 29% 6% 1%
22 SHIH Derek 100% 100% 98% 83% 47% 13% 1%
23 MAI Sy 100% 96% 76% 41% 13% 2% -
24 TAVERNA Matteo 100% 96% 78% 43% 14% 2% -
25 RONG Marcus 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 37% 8%
26 YU Haoyun 100% 97% 82% 51% 20% 4% -
27 CHIEN Ian 100% 95% 74% 40% 14% 2% -
28 HUA Nolan 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 25% 3%
29 NUGENT Curtis 100% 100% 95% 77% 44% 13% 2%
30 WONG Vansen 100% 100% 96% 80% 49% 19% 3%
31 YU Brandon 100% 98% 83% 48% 15% 1%
32 KIM Leejay 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 6%
33 OLIVAS Joseph 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 34% 5%
34 ONG David 100% 99% 94% 77% 46% 16% 3%
35 YOON Ian 100% 99% 90% 60% 22% 4% -
36 SHOURIE Neel 100% 98% 85% 56% 23% 5% -
37 SUN Jiarui (Jerry) 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 30% 4%
38 LIU Yihong 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 21% 3%
39 CHAN JR Jason 100% 100% 96% 80% 46% 12%
40 WONG Kyle 100% 99% 88% 57% 20% 2%
41 YUN Nicholas 100% 99% 91% 61% 23% 4% -
42 RAHMAN Ali 100% 100% 99% 91% 62% 24% 4%
43 YUN Mason 100% 75% 33% 8% 1% -
44 YIM Antonio 100% 97% 84% 54% 22% 5% -
45 LAU Caleb 100% 97% 82% 50% 20% 4% -
46 PARK Sean 100% 94% 70% 33% 8% 1% -
47 FU Benjamin 100% 100% 98% 82% 45% 13% 1%
48 LIU Aiden 100% 91% 63% 29% 8% 1% -
49 SHOURIE Seth 100% 99% 89% 63% 30% 8% 1%
50 SZETO Zachary 100% 95% 73% 38% 12% 2% -
50 ELARDO Griffin 100% 93% 69% 35% 10% 2% -
52 KIM Hayden 100% 95% 72% 37% 11% 2% -
53 LIN Daniel 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 27% 5%
54 CHU Clayton 100% 88% 56% 22% 5% 1% -
55 PARADKAR Akshay 100% 97% 79% 45% 15% 2% -
56 LO Stefan 100% 87% 54% 20% 4% - -
57 KONG William 100% 89% 54% 18% 3% -
58 TOUSSAINT Wizard 100% 88% 53% 19% 4% -
59 LIU William 100% 89% 58% 23% 5% - -
59 LI Guanhua 100% 98% 83% 51% 19% 4% -
61 KOU Mason 100% 98% 87% 59% 26% 6% -
62 HAN Alex 100% 100% 98% 82% 44% 11% 1%
63 GUO Jonathan 100% 79% 39% 11% 2% -
65 GONG Rongtao 100% 67% 18% 2% - - -
66 HUANG Eason 100% 99% 91% 59% 21% 4% -
67 SGOUROS Keane 100% 94% 72% 39% 13% 2% -
68 LI Connor 100% 83% 46% 15% 3% - -
69 BROWN Sean 100% 89% 50% 15% 2% - -
70 ZHAO Luke 100% 88% 57% 23% 5% 1% -
71 TAN Yichen 100% 62% 15% 2% - - -
72 LU Mark 100% 59% 12% 1% - - -
73 YE Andrew 100% 63% 22% 4% - - -
74 MULDER Chasen 100% 99% 91% 62% 25% 5% -
75 KOU Logan 100% 64% 14% 1% - - -
76 EVANS Harvey 100% 48% 10% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.