Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Cadet Men's Saber

Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 BRIMMER Robert (Trey) - - - - 5% 29% 65%
2 LEE Brian - - - 1% 8% 36% 54%
3 VENKATRAMAN Sudhir - - 3% 13% 31% 36% 16%
5 CHEN Cooper - - 1% 7% 26% 42% 24%
6 RONG Jasper - - 1% 9% 27% 40% 23%
7 DOOLEY Atticus - - 3% 14% 32% 37% 14%
8 ZEYU wu - - - 2% 12% 38% 48%
9 SUNG Julian - 4% 19% 36% 31% 10%
10 XIAO Brayden - - 1% 8% 33% 45% 13%
11 CHI Everett - 1% 5% 18% 35% 31% 10%
12 JOUFFLINEAU Yohann - - 1% 8% 29% 44% 17%
13 LI Ryan - 4% 15% 32% 32% 15% 2%
14 TANG Morgan - 3% 22% 41% 28% 6%
15 LEE Nathan Uju - - 6% 26% 43% 25%
16 WONG Ron - - 1% 11% 41% 47%
17 ROSALES Vincent - 1% 9% 28% 41% 21%
18 LING Carson Jr - 1% 15% 41% 34% 8%
19 OU Rigel - 5% 21% 36% 29% 8%
20 KIM Enoch 1% 6% 22% 36% 28% 8%
21 HAOSONG Oscar 1% 11% 35% 36% 15% 2% -
22 CHAN Troy Devon - 3% 15% 32% 32% 15% 2%
23 LUC Linkin - - 3% 16% 38% 35% 7%
24 CHEN Zhengming - 3% 14% 29% 32% 17% 4%
25 KIM Suin - 1% 13% 40% 37% 9%
26 WARD Carter 1% 12% 43% 34% 9% 1%
27 SU Kingston - 1% 12% 35% 38% 13%
28 KULKARNI Shreyas - 3% 14% 31% 34% 17% 2%
29 HAN Kyle 1% 8% 25% 37% 24% 6% -
30 LEE Winston - 5% 18% 34% 29% 12% 2%
30 GATTO Enzo P. - 2% 10% 26% 34% 22% 6%
32 YANG Jake 18% 41% 30% 10% 2% -
33 ZHANG KAIQI - 3% 17% 35% 33% 11%
34 BRUM Charles E. - 2% 13% 35% 35% 14% 1%
34 VENKATRAMAN Sushil 2% 12% 30% 34% 18% 4% -
36 SUN Eon 1% 7% 22% 33% 26% 10% 1%
37 GUO Jonathan 3% 17% 34% 30% 13% 3% -
38 LO Elroy 3% 15% 31% 31% 16% 4% -
39 SHEN Hudson 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
40 WINTERSET Mason - 4% 27% 41% 23% 4%
41 HORN Diodorus 29% 42% 23% 6% 1% -
42 AN Chris - 3% 17% 36% 33% 11%
43 LIU Clarence 6% 26% 36% 23% 7% 1% -
44 TENG Lucas - 5% 18% 33% 30% 12% 1%
45 JAMBUSARIA Aum 4% 19% 36% 29% 10% 1%
46 LIU Yijin - 6% 22% 37% 27% 7%
47 LIU Baichen (Matthew) 30% 43% 21% 5% 1% -
48 QI Jeremy 1% 8% 26% 37% 24% 5%
49 SLOAN Ethan 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 4% -
50 HONG Arick 2% 11% 29% 34% 19% 5% -
51 XIE Justin 7% 28% 36% 21% 6% 1%
52 CHEUNG Evan 10% 30% 34% 20% 6% 1% -
53 ROBUCHON Aleksandr 1% 6% 24% 37% 25% 6%
54 HSIEH Christian 1% 5% 19% 34% 29% 11% 1%
55 GOTTSCHALK Theodore 8% 28% 35% 22% 7% 1% -
56 SAHA Aadi 5% 21% 35% 27% 10% 1% -
57 LIANG David 8% 27% 35% 22% 7% 1% -
58 LIN Ethan - 5% 18% 34% 30% 12% 2%
59 FISCHER Noel 2% 14% 32% 33% 16% 3%
60 FUGATE Logan 8% 55% 30% 6% 1% -
61 LIU Daniel - 4% 18% 35% 32% 11%
62 LIU Paul 9% 31% 37% 19% 4% -
63 GONZALEZ Mark 4% 19% 35% 29% 11% 2% -
64 OON Ted 15% 37% 32% 13% 3% - -
65 YUEN Caleb - 2% 17% 37% 32% 10% 1%
66 KIM Leo 3% 15% 31% 32% 16% 3% -
67 HUNG Jaden 17% 38% 31% 12% 2% - -
68 CHANDLER Scott 42% 46% 11% 1% - -
69 WU Garrick 11% 32% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
70 HERRERA Stefano 3% 17% 33% 31% 14% 3% -
71 SAHA Aryan 32% 43% 21% 5% - -
72 RHODES Bryce 24% 40% 26% 8% 1% - -
73 HAMDAN Zachery 25% 41% 26% 7% 1% - -
74 RAPHAEL Pierson 19% 48% 27% 6% 1% - -
75 WEATHERBEE Liam 81% 18% 1% - - -
76 NGUYEN Ethan 20% 38% 29% 11% 2% - -
78 LEE Alexander 14% 34% 32% 15% 4% - -
78 XIAO Yi 1% 10% 31% 37% 18% 3% -
80 TYAGI Atticus 33% 52% 14% 1% - -
81 WU Dustin 50% 41% 9% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.