Bill Goering Colorado Cup #3 + Vet #2 Walk N' Roll

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Denver Fencing Center - Denver, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	TAFOYA Devin D.	-	-	-	1%	14%	86%
2	MUENKE Magnus	-	4%	21%	44%	32%
3	GAO Zachary	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
3	CELECKI Barrett	-	-	-	5%	33%	61%
5	BRUNO Timothy	-	-	6%	32%	48%	13%
6	EFE Joshua E.	-	3%	21%	46%	29%	2%
7	MARENCIK Miles	1%	6%	25%	41%	24%	4%
8	SCHWITZER Eliot	1%	18%	44%	29%	7%	1%
9	DANIS Blake M.	-	-	3%	20%	44%	32%
10	AGGELER Donovan	-	3%	21%	42%	28%	6%
11	LEE Jayden J.	-	7%	32%	45%	17%
12	MACMILLAN Collin	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	17%
13	EYMAN Hans	-	2%	19%	46%	31%	2%
14	COLLINS Payton	10%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-
15	ISAACSON Calev	-	4%	22%	47%	25%	3%
16	YANG Ethan	2%	16%	43%	33%	7%
17	AL SHIDHANI Abdul Hakeem	1%	10%	43%	37%	9%	-
18	WARD Zachary	27%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
19	MARTEGANI Enea	11%	38%	38%	11%	1%	-
20	COLE Matthew	-	1%	11%	34%	40%	13%
21	MAGNUSON Thomas	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%	-
22	MCKILLOP Matthew	39%	43%	16%	2%	-
23	GUROLNICK Michael	6%	70%	22%	2%	-	-
24	MESSENGER Niko	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
25	ISAACSON Henny	19%	50%	26%	5%	-
26	LONG Ethan	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
27	ANDERSON Donald	12%	42%	36%	9%	1%	-
27	KOVARI Kata	67%	31%	2%	-	-	-
29	HANEY Kimberly M.	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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