Capitol Clash SYC/RCC & Y8

Y-10 Men's Épée

Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center - National Harbor, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 YOU Asher 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 54% 13%
2 JIANG Adam 100% 100% 97% 80% 41% 9%
3 IVANOV Andrew 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 37% 9%
3 LIU YULIN 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 21%
5 FAYEZ Adam 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 45% 12%
6 YAN Milan 100% 100% 96% 79% 45% 12%
7 KIM Ian 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 53% 17%
8 GAO Guanyi (Jonathan) 100% 100% 98% 89% 64% 29% 6%
10 GAO Kevin 100% 99% 95% 77% 45% 16% 2%
11 VAN RIET Matteo 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 38% 9%
12 LIU FREDERICK 100% 100% 98% 86% 57% 19%
13 THOMSON Piers 100% 100% 95% 70% 23%
14 NG Remy 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 21%
15 YU Luca 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 42% 11%
16 LEE Derek 100% 99% 90% 63% 28% 5%
17 FERNANDEZ Chenxing 100% 100% 98% 83% 40% 4%
18 KO Caden 100% 94% 70% 34% 9% 1%
19 JIN Jacob 100% 99% 91% 64% 27% 5%
20 CHEUNG Daniel 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 13%
21 CHU Joe 100% 95% 74% 38% 11% 1%
22 CANONACO Maddox 100% 91% 63% 28% 7% 1% -
23 MAK Nolan 100% 99% 91% 68% 35% 10% 1%
24 LIU Spencer 100% 100% 94% 73% 36% 8%
25 OLELE Chibuikem 100% 98% 87% 58% 23% 4%
26 LEE Sehryum 100% 98% 85% 54% 21% 3%
27 LUO Sebastian 100% 99% 94% 71% 32% 6%
28 ZHOU Silvan 100% 97% 83% 52% 21% 5% -
29 HONG Evan 100% 100% 97% 85% 56% 22% 4%
30 ROCHE Theodore 100% 97% 81% 48% 17% 3% -
31 DUCHNOWSKI Kempson 100% 82% 45% 15% 3% - -
32 XI Eric 100% 93% 65% 27% 5% -
34 CHA Declan 100% 100% 99% 90% 60% 19%
35 SHABBIR Mohammad Amaan 100% 98% 87% 58% 24% 5% -
36 ALI Akash 100% 97% 81% 50% 20% 4% -
37 SALIBA Jackson 100% 100% 95% 78% 47% 16% 2%
38 LEUNG Joon 100% 100% 97% 78% 36% 7%
39 SIU Maximus 100% 99% 94% 76% 45% 16% 3%
40 BUCHNER Theodore 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 36% 8%
41 LAW Benjamin 100% 98% 86% 57% 23% 4%
42 LU Shawn 100% 100% 98% 81% 37%
43 JEONG Joshua 100% 98% 83% 48% 13% 1%
44 CHEN Samuel 100% 97% 82% 51% 20% 4% -
45 KAZA Avyaan 100% 96% 79% 46% 17% 3% -
46 SALA John 100% 98% 87% 59% 26% 6% 1%
47 CHEN Yijia (Rick) 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 31%
48 SHAPIRO Benjamin 100% 84% 43% 10% 1%
49 WENDLING Andrew 100% 78% 39% 11% 2% -
50 ZUNIGA Finn 100% 72% 26% 4% - -
51 LI AIDEN 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 13% 2%
52 ZUNIGA Wyatt 100% 86% 51% 19% 4% - -
53 TANG David 100% 99% 93% 73% 40% 13% 2%
54 SADLER Leon 100% 52% 14% 2% - -
55 LEE Zachariah 100% 80% 37% 7% 1%
56 ZHONG Austin 100% 86% 52% 19% 4% -
57 VOLKOV Joshua 100% 90% 59% 23% 5% 1% -
58 KIM Nicholas 100% 86% 52% 20% 4% - -
59 CAVALLARO Xavier 100% 98% 86% 57% 25% 6% 1%
60 WANG Samuel 100% 81% 44% 15% 3% - -
61 ZHU Peter 100% 97% 80% 48% 17% 3% -
62 ZHANG Mason 100% 98% 86% 56% 22% 4%
63 DONG Eason 100% 93% 68% 34% 10% 2% -
64 SMITH Charleston 100% 96% 73% 36% 11% 2% -
65 ELMI Omid 100% 87% 50% 15% 2% -
66 KUBBA Neil 100% 74% 29% 5% - -
67 ISLAM Ryan 100% 79% 41% 12% 2% - -
68 CHOI Kevin 100% 83% 41% 9% 1%
69 HANAUER Bryce 100% 98% 81% 45% 13% 2%
70 LAM-DANBACK Zachary 100% 74% 30% 6% 1% -
71 LI Kevin 100% 100% 96% 77% 39% 8%
72 GANT Buhawi 100% 100% 92% 49% 12% 1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.