Battle in Seattle

Div I-A Women's Saber

Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 10:00 AM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KALKINA Yelena	-	-	-	-	4%	96%
2	WANG Tina	1%	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%
3	GOLDIN Nina	-	-	-	5%	22%	43%	29%
3	TANG Wing Ka Ariana	-	-	1%	12%	39%	48%
5	KNULL Emma	-	3%	20%	38%	30%	9%	1%
6	FERRIS Madeline	-	-	5%	21%	39%	30%	6%
7	YANG Caroline	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
8	WONG Natalie	-	7%	30%	41%	19%	3%
9	HUANG Wanyi	1%	8%	29%	42%	21%	-
10	TENG Christine Renmei	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
11	WILLEMSE Jamie	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
12	FEENER Paige	3%	20%	44%	26%	7%	1%	-
13	DOLEV Rony	1%	12%	34%	38%	15%	-
13	KAZA Ananya	12%	42%	33%	10%	1%	-
15	RAMAN Indira	-	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
16	LEMMEN Jasmijn	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
17	BARCZAY Sara E.	2%	17%	39%	33%	9%	-
18	ERPELDING Emily	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
19	MATSUO Kei	-	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	14%
20	CARLUCCI Laura A.	-	1%	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
21	JI Xinya	1%	6%	24%	37%	24%	7%	1%
22	OOI Ming Qin	10%	47%	33%	9%	1%	-	-
23	MEFFORD Isadora	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-	-
24	DEVASIA Nisha	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
25	HE Manni	7%	31%	40%	19%	3%	-
26	KOENIG Audrey	-	3%	18%	39%	33%	7%
27	ZUG Kiersten A.	1%	6%	21%	37%	28%	7%
28	SUNIDJA Indira	16%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
29	LOWREY Zola	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-	-
30	WONG Alice	50%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
31	WHELAN Quinn	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
32	DEGEN Anita L.	< 1%	4%	23%	39%	27%	7%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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