Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Monday, January 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ARNOLD Hali	-	-	3%	18%	42%	37%
2	YU Stella	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
3	CHERUKURI Tanvi	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
3	PARK Chloe	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	12%
5	LIN Ariel	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
6	CAI Veronica	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
7	DIECK Miranda P.	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
8	SHEARER Alena	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	10%
9	YU Skylar	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
10	NGUYEN Summer	1%	9%	33%	38%	17%	2%
11	SEO Yunseo	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
12	RIVERA Brenda	-	6%	23%	38%	27%	6%
13	MAO Elsa	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
14	NING Lynn	-	1%	11%	34%	40%	14%
15	SUZUKI HAN Emma Yukino	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	15%
16	CHANG Kaitlyn	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
17	LAUREYNS Ainsley	1%	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%
18	DUDNICK Morgan	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
19	XA-CHIN Sara	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
20	SUNG Isabella	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	3%
21	DENG Oscar	16%	47%	29%	7%	1%	-
22	MUNGUIA Mila	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
23	ZHAI AMY	-	7%	26%	39%	24%	5%
24	DING Jolie	4%	23%	40%	25%	7%	1%
25	GAIKWAD Ashmiee	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
26	KIM Hyunseo	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
27	MISHEV Lila	2%	19%	38%	29%	9%	1%
28	LIU Hannah	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
29	LIN Annika	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	7%
30	JUNG Sienna	3%	20%	39%	28%	9%	1%	-
31	CHEN Colette	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%
32	MAO anna	-	6%	27%	41%	22%	4%
33	VIGNEUX Nolwenn	7%	33%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
34	HENRY Erin	19%	44%	28%	8%	1%	-
35	LIM Eunice	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
36	VILLAMATER Mia Franchesca	61%	32%	6%	1%	-	-
37	ZHAO Abbie	3%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
38	PANCHAL Arya	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
39	WELCH Greta	52%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
40	STAPLEY Claire	16%	39%	31%	12%	2%	-
40	SULEMAN Yasmin	27%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-
42	BAIRD Kaleah	10%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%
43	YUMIACO Samantha	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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