Midwest SYC/RCC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 11:30 AM

Canlan Sports Libertyville - Libertyville, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FRANGER Macy	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
2	ANEZIOKORO Zahra	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
3	LIN Alexis	-	-	3%	14%	34%	37%	12%
3	LIU Chloe	-	-	1%	8%	26%	42%	23%
5	TALANDZEVICIUS Sophia	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	35%
6	LI Ariel	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	21%
7	TISMENSKY Abigail	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
8	TISMENSKY Avital	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	27%	2%
9	EKSHTUT Leah	-	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
10	SHI Elle	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
12	CHEN Allison	1%	7%	27%	39%	21%	5%	-
13	FAN Joy	-	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
14	LAI Juliet	-	6%	27%	43%	21%	2%
15	DEFENSOR Ella	1%	9%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
16	ARULKUMAR Lashia	-	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	6%
17	KANE Alexa	-	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	17%
18	EDGAR Koko	-	1%	12%	38%	41%	7%
19	ANDRUS Allie	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
20	DEJOY Leilah	7%	27%	36%	23%	6%	1%	-
21	ZHANG Ashley	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
22	XIAO Ashley	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	9%	-
23	LIU Brinley	-	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
24	BOUTSIKARIS Asha	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
25	HUFF Elizabeth	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	10%	1%
26	CAI Melody	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
27	BRINDAVAN Vyahriti	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
28	CLEMMER-BECHT Elise	-	7%	27%	39%	23%	5%
29	NEGRUT Sabina	2%	32%	41%	20%	4%	-
30	CHEN Reina	-	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%
31	MEGGERS Arya	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
32	ZHANG Joy	11%	38%	37%	13%	1%	-
33	TRIVULCE Scarlett	7%	31%	40%	18%	4%	-	-
34	SCHLIEP Camellia	5%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
35	TISHKOVA-ROBERTS Daria	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
36	BELLA LOBRACO Luciana	8%	29%	36%	20%	6%	1%	-
37	SHUKLA Annika	8%	34%	39%	16%	3%	-	-
38	HUANG Cynthia	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-
39	JOHN Elsa	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%	-
39	HE Joyce	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
41	LOO Samantha	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
42	TISDALE Zaria	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
43	WANG Jenny wang	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
44	KRAVCHENKO Tatyana	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
45	BRAY Ava	7%	32%	41%	17%	2%	-
46	ZHAO Amy	1%	11%	29%	33%	19%	5%	1%
47	YADAGIRI Aditi	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-
48	PARKER Addison	84%	15%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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