Mission RYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MANSFIELD Hunter	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	24%
2	KIM Henry	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
3	SONG Aidan	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
3	CHO Adrian	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
5	HENNESSY Levon	-	-	-	2%	14%	47%	37%
6	CHEN Cameron	-	-	2%	10%	28%	38%	20%
7	WU Matthew	-	-	-	2%	15%	49%	34%
8	LOPATIN Sergei	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	4%
9	TANG Colin	-	1%	9%	30%	40%	18%	3%
10	MASKIN Mikhail	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
11	CHEN Evan	-	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
12	LIN John	-	5%	18%	34%	30%	11%	1%
13	TUNG Charlie	-	1%	6%	24%	41%	26%	2%
14	GAO Ryan	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	6%	-
15	LIN Lucas	-	1%	7%	27%	41%	22%	2%
16	LI Tyrese	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
17	SINGLETON Aman	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
18	SZCZAPA Lukas	-	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
19	ARMSTRONG Payson	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
20	KO Ethan	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
21	HUEMMER James	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%	-
22	JIN Noah	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	5%	-
23	CARPENTER Touma S.	-	-	1%	7%	28%	44%	20%
24	TANG Jayce	6%	26%	36%	23%	8%	1%	-
24	TOMPA Paul	1%	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
26	CHEN Jayden A	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	4%	-
27	MILOWSKY Majai	6%	39%	39%	14%	2%	-	-
28	JIANG Aidan	5%	26%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
29	PARISH-MORRIS Jay	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%	-
30	JHUNJHUNWALA Milan	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	20%	4%
31	CIANCHETTA David	12%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
32	SHAO Mason	2%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
33	SCHLUBACH Jasper	2%	17%	35%	31%	13%	2%	-
34	HOREMIOTIS Bennett	1%	7%	25%	39%	23%	5%	-
35	JEPP Michael	9%	36%	37%	16%	3%	-
36	LEE Elijah	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
37	LEE Asher	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	3%	-
38	YOU Emmanuel	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
39	MATHEW Benjamin	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-
40	YADAV Aarav	7%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-	-
41	LAI Jaxon	13%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
42	CHEN Caleb	36%	42%	18%	3%	-	-	-
43	CARPENTER Taisei	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
44	WAGNER Miles	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
45	CHAN Aiden	1%	11%	43%	39%	6%	-	-
45	JIANG Jaden	1%	19%	37%	29%	11%	2%	-
47	DALY Liam	55%	35%	9%	1%	-	-	-
48	HENRY Arthur	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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