Mission RYC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WU Wallace	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	68%
2	ZHAI Alex	-	-	-	1%	8%	33%	58%
3	HU Michael	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
3	QIAN Will	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
5	XIAN Kevin	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
6	SHEN Lucas	-	1%	7%	25%	39%	23%	4%
7	ZHANG Eric	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	16%
8	XIA Vincent	-	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	9%
9	SU Sean	-	1%	9%	29%	39%	19%	2%
10	HUANG Dalynn	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
11	CAO Aaron	-	1%	8%	31%	43%	17%
12	CHONG Cooper	2%	12%	28%	33%	19%	5%	-
13	WU Max	3%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
14	YOON Mason	-	4%	21%	42%	27%	5%
15	CHAN Cosmos HH	13%	33%	33%	17%	4%	1%	-
16	WANG Leon	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%	1%
17	SHARMA Ari	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	1%
18	ZUO Yizhi	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
19	JIANG Ethan	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
20	MONDESIR Chace	1%	7%	23%	34%	26%	9%	1%
21	GENG Vincent	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%	-
22	DENG Jonathan	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	26%	3%
23	LIN Tyler	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
24	XIE zhouhan	12%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
25	YU Adam	5%	27%	42%	22%	4%	-
26	PELLERIN Liam	9%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-	-
27	DING Jacob	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
28	GUTKOVSKIY Ryan	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
29	AMR HOSSNY Adam	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
30	LEONG Michael	26%	45%	24%	5%	-	-
31	YU Oliver	-	5%	18%	33%	30%	13%	1%
32	LU Jason	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
33	DEL VALLE-LIN Julian	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
34	RICHMAN Aaron	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-	-
35	HO Marcus	4%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%	-
36	LIU Max	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
37	DUAN EDWIN	4%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
38	CAI Charlie	24%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
39	AWALGAONKAR Aahan	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
40	CHEN Jonathan	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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