The Winter's Edge Open

Mixed Épée

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 10:30 AM

EKU Campus Rec Center - Richmond, KY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KOENIGSKNECHT Julian	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	28%
2	METZ Evan	-	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
3	TURNER Joshua	-	-	-	3%	18%	46%	32%
3	TRAN John	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	6%
5	EDWARDS Tim	-	-	-	3%	19%	47%	30%
5	TOMASI John	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	5%
7	REDEMANN Shawn	-	-	2%	12%	36%	38%	12%
8	PUFFENBERGER Daniel	-	2%	16%	35%	33%	13%	2%
9	STAUBITZ Marc	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
10	MUDD Dakota	-	4%	21%	39%	28%	7%	-
11	MCNARY Ross	-	13%	33%	34%	16%	4%	-
12	TERRILL Luke	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
13	ANDERSON Noah	-	1%	9%	26%	38%	24%	3%
14	WILLIAMS Jacob	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	1%
15	BATES Madison	3%	29%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
15	GILL Anhad	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	3%	-
17	ICE McKenna	13%	33%	33%	17%	5%	1%	-
18	WALKER Derek	-	2%	12%	33%	35%	15%	2%
19	NEUMANN Nathaniel	-	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	5%
19	KINCAID Nathaniel	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
21	GIVAN Cury	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	4%
22	INGRIM Adellia	35%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-
23	DURR Anna	33%	48%	16%	2%	-	-	-
24	HARPER Harper	-	3%	16%	37%	33%	10%	1%
25	SMITH Ever	21%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
26	CRAFT David M.	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
27	LAGONA Anna	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
28	DUTTON Kimberly	66%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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