Ataba Fencing Club February Challenge

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM

Ataba Fencing Club - Hartland, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SPIER Julian H.	-	-	-	-	10%	90%
2	MITEV Alexander	-	-	-	5%	34%	60%
3	BEACH John	-	-	3%	17%	45%	36%
3	SOBESHKEVYCH Roman	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
5	CURTY Jack	-	1%	14%	44%	34%	7%
6	GLASS Timothy C.	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
7	SWANSON Dave	-	-	3%	24%	67%	6%
8	MACGREGOR Grant	2%	13%	35%	36%	13%	2%
9	SNYDER Alex	-	1%	10%	34%	43%	12%
10	KANE Alexa	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
11	WEAVER Edward	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%
12	GRANSTROM Colin	3%	19%	39%	31%	7%	-
13	MCDOWELL Will	-	1%	6%	26%	46%	22%
14	BANACH Ross	42%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
15	HONERMEIER Max	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
16	LOHR-KOUGL Eadrick	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
17	BURKHARDT Krista L.	1%	9%	34%	40%	15%	1%
18	KATZMAN Anara	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
19	STEINEKE Warren	5%	26%	40%	23%	5%	-
20	KARLSON Taylor	15%	42%	35%	8%	-	-
21	BERTRAND Reece	2%	17%	41%	32%	7%	-
22	TIERNEY Luke	1%	9%	35%	47%	9%	-
23	PATE Scott	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
24	ST. GEORGE David J.	8%	33%	38%	18%	3%	-
25	NIXON Bailey	33%	46%	18%	3%	-	-
26	ALLER Bruce	22%	46%	28%	4%	-	-
27	FOATE Bryton	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
28	HENSEL Kaeleb	6%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-
29	SATHIYAMOORTHY Vikranth	24%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
30	DORNFELD Elizabeth	26%	44%	25%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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