Long Island Challenge ROC & RPC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 GUTH Joseph - - 1% 10% 42% 39% 9%
2 LI Aaron - - - - 5% 31% 63%
3 DESANDO Michael R. - - - 1% 6% 32% 61%
3 TRAUGOT Owen G. - - - 1% 18% 81%
5 ZOBEL Eric H. - - 3% 25% 73%
6 LI Arvin - - - 3% 20% 45% 31%
7 LEE Brendan - - - 1% 9% 37% 53%
8 SMITH Liam C. - - - 1% 10% 40% 50%
9 MAGIDSON Gabriel - - - - 1% 14% 86%
11 MARTIN Darius - - - 1% 9% 37% 53%
12 DJONOUMA Toyohm 1% 14% 45% 35% 4%
13 JOSEPH Willem - - - 7% 36% 45% 12%
14 WU DING-JUN - 1% 4% 19% 38% 32% 6%
15 LEE Charles T - 1% 6% 23% 40% 27% 4%
16 LIM Charlie - - 4% 21% 41% 30% 5%
17 KO Caleb - - 6% 27% 41% 22% 3%
18 GORLOVITZKI Amitai - 4% 20% 37% 29% 9% 1%
19 ZHANG Julian 1% 9% 32% 39% 17% 2% -
20 SFINTESCU Alex 1% 13% 43% 33% 9% 1% -
21 JIN Andy 5% 25% 40% 24% 5% -
22 XU Nathan 1% 9% 27% 36% 22% 5% -
23 COZINE Owen N. - - 2% 15% 43% 40%
23 BAI Brian - 1% 11% 36% 45% 7%
25 BAI Austin - - 4% 18% 39% 32% 7%
26 JIMENEZ Naveen - 1% 13% 44% 39% 4%
27 CLARK Benjamin - - 6% 27% 42% 21% 3%
28 HAN Alexander - 5% 30% 48% 16% 2% -
29 WONG Jacob W. 1% 6% 22% 36% 27% 8% 1%
30 CHO Xzander - 2% 18% 41% 30% 8% 1%
31 CHAN Tyler - 1% 5% 21% 42% 31%
32 BERETICH Brian 2% 20% 41% 29% 7% 1% -
33 ZHAO Ryan - 2% 11% 31% 37% 17% 2%
34 ZHAO Brian - 1% 10% 33% 38% 16% 2%
35 HOU Gaven 1% 14% 44% 36% 5%
36 KUO Phineas - 4% 19% 37% 29% 9% 1%
37 XIE Jicheng - 1% 17% 48% 32% 2%
38 GRUNENWALD Henri 7% 27% 38% 23% 6% 1%
39 TOOMRE Kai 22% 41% 28% 8% 1% -
40 MONTALBINE Aidan 3% 16% 34% 33% 13% 2%
41 TIKHAEV Alexander - 1% 8% 29% 44% 18%
42 SHANNON Jack 2% 13% 35% 36% 13% 1%
44 VIVEROS Evan - - 1% 9% 35% 50% 5%
45 YANG David H. - 2% 12% 32% 37% 16% 2%
46 CHANG Xavier 4% 22% 39% 26% 8% 1% -
47 QUAN Noah 13% 52% 29% 5% - - -
48 HOWARD Fox 10% 66% 22% 2% - -
49 WAYBRIGHT Matteo - 1% 11% 35% 41% 12% -
50 DEEB Adam - - < 1% 6% 26% 45% 23%
51 CHO Alexander 6% 33% 40% 18% 3% - -
52 KINGSLEY Griffin 13% 35% 34% 15% 3% - -
53 TANG Jeremy 15% 48% 30% 6% - - -
54 TAM Kyle 1% 16% 49% 30% 4% - -
55 HUANG Jinyao 15% 56% 26% 3% - - -
56 ZHENG Austin 30% 49% 19% 2% -
57 PEREZ Logan 2% 21% 45% 26% 6% 1% -
58 REYES Yannik 34% 43% 19% 4% - -
59 HOLMES Alexiy 7% 28% 37% 22% 6% -
60 QIAN Zekai 7% 28% 38% 21% 5% 1% -
61 DAO-CRESPO Joaquin 6% 31% 39% 20% 4% - -
62 OH Joshua 3% 17% 34% 31% 12% 2% -
63 THOMAS Liam - 10% 50% 33% 6% -
64 GALLER Dave 18% 39% 30% 11% 2% - -
65 VIVEROS Antonio 10% 35% 37% 16% 2% -
66 MCGREEVY Gavin 49% 39% 11% 1% - - -
67 BULIN Jack 63% 31% 5% - - - -
69 SMITH Colin 25% 43% 25% 6% 1% - -
70 CHANG Zane 13% 37% 34% 13% 2% - -
71 ZHANG Ethan 37% 47% 14% 1% -
71 CONVERSO-PARSONS Alexander 68% 29% 3% - - - -
73 COREAS Jonathan 69% 29% 3% - - - -
74 TURCIOS Marvin 57% 37% 6% - - - -
75 BEGUE DE RIESTHAL Max 82% 17% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.