Maximum FOIL Challenge

Y-8 Mixed Foil

Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 1:00 PM

Maximum Fencing Club - Los Altos, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 KNOX Aysa 100% 80% 32% 4% - < 1%
2 KOLENIC Chance 100% 100% 99% 92% 64% 22%
3 HSU Justin 100% 91% 58% 19% 2% < 1%
3 FANNION Alexander 100% 97% 81% 47% 13% 1%
5 LEI Adam 100% 100% 95% 77% 43% 12%
6 LIN Valentina 100% 100% 97% 80% 43% 10%
7 MIAO Aria 100% 67% 23% 4% - -
8 VONTIMITTA Neel 100% 91% 58% 20% 3% -
9 TAM Alisa 100% 96% 74% 34% 7% -
10 DONG Alan 100% 91% 59% 21% 3% -
11 LEE Cayden 100% 77% 38% 10% 2% -
12 LEE Annabelle 100% 100% 100% 95% 71% 25%
13 LI Effie 100% 100% 97% 67% 20% 1%
14 JIA Angela 100% 100% 97% 79% 41% 9%
15 ZHU Chance 100% 91% 62% 27% 6% 1%
16 KOTANDON Neev 100% 100% 96% 72% 32% 6%
17 ANAND Neel 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 19%
18 TSE Cleo 100% 100% 93% 69% 32% 7%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.