GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Y-14 Men's Foil

Friday, March 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	OZAWA Taishi	-	-	-	-	-	3%	97%
2	WANG Freyr	-	-	2%	16%	53%	29%
3	LIN Jun Hui	-	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
3	LATORRE Leonardo	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
5	PAYNE Lynas	-	-	2%	13%	37%	40%	7%
6	ROUS Miguel	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	7%
7	TAN Charlie	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	67%
8	WENGER Rowan	-	-	3%	16%	38%	36%	6%
9	CRONK Trevor	1%	7%	21%	33%	26%	10%	2%
10	ZHAO Jason	-	-	1%	8%	43%	49%
11	JIAO Daniel	-	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	7%
12	LINEBERRY CADEN	-	-	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%
13	AN Jacob	5%	21%	36%	27%	10%	1%	-
14	WILLIAMS Thomas	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%	-
15	HUANG Lucas	-	2%	9%	25%	34%	24%	6%
16	STAMPS Jasper	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%	-
17	GARCIA Fabricio	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	8%	-
18	MEI Edan	10%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
19	RITTER Nathan D.	8%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
20	NETESA Lukian	25%	47%	24%	4%	-	-
21	DENG Albert	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%	-
22	MATIYASH Andrew	15%	42%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
23	MORGAN Jacob	3%	21%	43%	28%	4%	-
24	MADDES Gage	-	4%	16%	31%	30%	15%	3%
25	CHASE Crosby	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%	-
26	ROGGELIN Owen	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%
27	KOSCIK-AQUINO Nicholas	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%	-
28	TAGORE Ayansh	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
29	REES Vaughan	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
30	MCGRATH Milo	-	4%	15%	30%	31%	16%	3%
31	THEKKEL Jonathan	2%	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
31	ZHAI Noah	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-
33	KOUTYCHENKO Andrey	14%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
34	MARVEL Elliot	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
35	KLINE Benjamin	2%	17%	41%	33%	6%	-
36	BEDARD Bennett	2%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%	-
37	LUND Jonah	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-	-
38	LI Jensen	5%	24%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
39	CORDERO Lucas	26%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
40	ZUIDEMA Harrison	20%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
41	CHAISANGUANTHUM Sarit	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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