Cherry Blossom 2026 - D1A/VET

Div I-A Men's Foil

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 9:30 AM

University of Maryland Reckord Armory - College Park, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HOLLIS Sean	-	-	2%	14%	40%	35%	9%
2	BLACK Zachary	-	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
3	PECK Quinn	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	23%
3	PAN Ethan	-	1%	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%
5	GRIEB Oliver	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
6	PRICE Owen	-	-	5%	22%	44%	27%	2%
7	FLANAGAN James	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	41%
8	TIKHAEV Alexander	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
9	SCHLESINGER Nathan	-	-	-	-	1%	18%	81%
10	METZ Mason	-	-	2%	12%	37%	39%	11%
11	BEREKNYEI Lukas	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	< 1%	-
12	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	-	4%	19%	43%	31%	3%
13	KUBBA Krish	14%	34%	32%	15%	4%	-	-
14	PEREZ Logan	5%	25%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
15	KALAI Joshua	-	3%	15%	35%	33%	12%	1%
16	GORLOVITZKI Amitai	1%	6%	19%	33%	28%	12%	2%
17	STANSBURY Desmond	6%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-	-
18	GIOTIS Nicolas	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	16%	3%
19	BAYER John P.	7%	24%	35%	24%	9%	2%	-
20	LEE Jet	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%	1%	-
21	NSUBUGA Jeffrey	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%	1%	-
22	MATZ Cameron	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
23	MACK Ethan	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-	-
24	NEGLEY Royce	26%	42%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
25	RHEE Josiah	26%	44%	24%	5%	1%	-	-
26	CHENUTULA Abhinav	23%	45%	26%	6%	1%	-	-
27	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
28	CHOW Kingsley	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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