Fortune RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Ontario Convention Center - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 FU Nolan - - - 1% 8% 35% 56%
2 DU Evan - - - 3% 24% 72%
3 OLIVAS Joseph 1% 7% 25% 39% 24% 5%
3 DENG Destin - - 3% 15% 34% 34% 13%
5 YAO Tristan - - - 4% 19% 44% 33%
6 XUE Michael - - - 10% 41% 49%
7 OR Anson - 2% 10% 25% 34% 23% 6%
8 KROTZ Nicolas - - 1% 9% 31% 42% 17%
9 WANG Devin - - 2% 13% 40% 45%
10 MOSLEY Wally - - 1% 13% 41% 45%
11 WONG Aaron - - 4% 20% 43% 32%
12 RONG Marcus - 1% 5% 20% 36% 30% 9%
13 SAMOYLOV Daniel 1% 8% 26% 35% 22% 7% 1%
14 BERTEL Florian - - 2% 13% 35% 38% 11%
15 LIU Daniel 7% 27% 37% 23% 6% -
16 PARK Sean 4% 21% 38% 27% 9% 1% -
17 ADDLEMAN Joshua - - - 2% 12% 40% 47%
18 SCHWARTZMAN Ethan - 1% 10% 30% 40% 18%
19 SHOURIE Seth - 4% 15% 30% 31% 16% 3%
20 NOLAN Morgan 6% 26% 38% 23% 7% 1% -
21 TANG Michael - 1% 8% 28% 42% 21%
22 XIE HanZhang (Elon) - - 5% 35% 46% 14%
23 WONG Vansen - 3% 18% 40% 32% 7%
24 MARTEGANI Enea - 3% 17% 40% 33% 8%
25 CHAN JR Jason - - 4% 16% 34% 33% 12%
26 TOUSSAINT Wizard - 4% 18% 36% 31% 10% 1%
27 SUN Jerry - 2% 13% 32% 35% 16% 2%
28 NGUYEN Ethan V. 3% 16% 34% 33% 13% 2%
29 LUCENAY Samuel - 3% 16% 34% 32% 13% 1%
30 LEE Joshua 10% 33% 36% 17% 3% -
31 TENG Eric 4% 28% 40% 22% 5% - -
32 YUN Nicholas 9% 32% 37% 18% 4% -
33 DENG Henry - - 1% 7% 26% 42% 24%
34 ELARDO Griffin 5% 20% 33% 28% 12% 3% -
35 WONG Kyle - 1% 9% 29% 38% 19% 3%
36 LEE Lucas - - 4% 22% 44% 30%
37 NUGENT Curtis - - 8% 41% 41% 10%
38 YOON Ian 4% 22% 41% 26% 7% 1%
39 PARRA Lucas - 1% 4% 15% 32% 34% 15%
40 CHIN NAKAZONO Justin 1% 11% 31% 35% 17% 3% -
41 SAMIMI Sina - 1% 6% 22% 38% 27% 7%
42 MAI Sy 1% 12% 34% 37% 15% 1%
43 KHUSHRAJ Rohan - 1% 11% 34% 40% 14%
44 VENERACION Marcus 35% 42% 19% 4% - -
45 YOO Lucas - 4% 21% 40% 28% 6%
46 YU Haoyun 1% 11% 33% 38% 16% 1%
47 SHOURIE Neel - 2% 13% 31% 35% 17% 2%
48 SHARMA Aniket 1% 12% 33% 35% 16% 3% -
49 YIM Antonio 13% 35% 34% 15% 3% -
51 KONG William 3% 15% 30% 31% 17% 5% -
52 RAJPRABHU Pranesh 7% 27% 37% 23% 6% 1% -
53 LYSENKO Timofei 8% 30% 38% 20% 4% -
53 SONG Jonathan 1% 8% 29% 40% 20% 2%
55 HUANG Eason 8% 34% 39% 16% 3% -
56 GONZALEZ-KUSHNER Elian 3% 18% 36% 31% 11% 1%
57 CHIEN Ian 12% 34% 35% 16% 3% -
58 GUO Jonathan 3% 16% 34% 32% 13% 2% -
59 LIU Max - - 3% 14% 34% 36% 13%
60 GONG Rongtao 52% 38% 9% 1% - -
61 KOU Mason 2% 16% 35% 32% 12% 2%
62 MA Nolan - 5% 20% 38% 30% 6%
63 CHAN Nathan 2% 14% 33% 34% 15% 3% -
65 TAVERNA Matteo 3% 22% 38% 27% 9% 1% -
66 ENG Kyler - 2% 13% 34% 38% 13%
67 HUNG Ludwig 21% 50% 26% 3% - -
68 HERNANDEZ-ALDANA Miguel 4% 21% 37% 27% 9% 1% -
69 FONG Ethan 27% 42% 24% 6% 1% - -
70 LI Connor 13% 40% 34% 11% 2% -
71 GUO OSCAR 8% 36% 38% 16% 2% -
72 FERRIERE Theo 5% 29% 42% 20% 4% -
72 ZENG Aidrik 47% 39% 12% 2% - -
74 KOU Logan 43% 44% 12% 1% - -
75 CHU Clayton 8% 29% 36% 21% 6% 1% -
76 LIU Aiden 1% 13% 35% 34% 14% 2% -
77 ORTMANN Noah 39% 41% 16% 3% - - -
78 LO Stefan 28% 42% 23% 6% 1% - -
79 YUN Mason 4% 21% 36% 27% 10% 2% -
80 ZHAO Luke 23% 42% 27% 7% 1% -
81 NOZAWA Luke 12% 31% 33% 18% 5% 1% -
82 TIAN Dylan 3% 14% 30% 31% 17% 5% -
83 YE Andrew 8% 37% 45% 9% 1% -
84 LOUIE Kyle 42% 42% 14% 2% - -
85 BALDWIN Liam 63% 31% 6% - - - -
86 YANG Rony 55% 35% 9% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.