Fortune RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Épée

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Ontario Convention Center - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DAI Greyson	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
2	FU Benjamin	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
3	BUSH Andrew	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	16%
3	LI John	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	15%
5	DING Daniel	-	-	-	6%	36%	58%
6	HONG Eason	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	12%
7	YANG Mikey	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
8	LEUNG Joon	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	33%
9	YI Alexander	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	59%
10	JIN JETFAN	-	-	1%	8%	38%	54%
11	YIM Benjamin	-	-	5%	29%	50%	16%
12	WANG Alexander	6%	29%	41%	20%	3%	-
13	LEE Paxton	-	5%	26%	47%	20%	2%
14	SHI Ethan	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
15	HAO Hardy	-	2%	16%	43%	33%	5%
16	SHEN Chris	-	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	11%
17	ARULKUMAR Rihaan	-	2%	15%	43%	35%	5%
18	XUE Jason	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
19	CHEN Andrew	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
20	DUCOURNAU Enzo	6%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
21	CHO Lincoln	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
22	TOUPET Luke	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
23	WAN William	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
24	KIM Ian	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
25	MAYA Fabien	-	-	-	4%	29%	66%
26	LEI Hanson	11%	39%	36%	12%	1%	-
27	ZHANG Lucas	4%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
28	ZHANG George	1%	9%	29%	36%	20%	4%	-
29	NOVOSELOV Roman	-	1%	9%	33%	44%	13%
30	NI Liam	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
31	LU Jayden	10%	33%	36%	18%	4%	-
32	ZHAO Jonathan Li	13%	41%	35%	11%	1%	-
33	LEE Zeo	11%	38%	35%	14%	2%	-	-
34	LINDBERG Everett	-	4%	16%	33%	32%	14%	1%
35	HWANG Isaac	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
36	LI Ethan	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
37	LI nathan zeting	8%	27%	36%	23%	7%	1%
38	LUCENAY Mael	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	14%	1%
39	MAH Caffrey	-	6%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
40	VIVAS Colin	6%	30%	43%	18%	2%	-
41	LEE Jayden	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
42	HAN Kyle	36%	44%	17%	2%	-	-
43	OSIKA Wyatt	16%	47%	30%	6%	-	-
44	TONG Matthew	37%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-
45	WALKER Jack	10%	30%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
46	WANG Nolan	1%	7%	29%	42%	19%	2%
47	PENG Jason	11%	39%	40%	10%	1%	-
48	YANG Liam	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
49	MA Sebastian	23%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-
50	CAMPBELL Briggs	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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