Swarthmore College Phoenix Cup C & Under

Div II Mixed Foil

Sunday, March 22, 2026 at 11:45 AM

Lamb-Miller Fieldhouse - Swarthmore, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	FLYNN Ian	-	-	-	6%	48%	45%
2	PEARCE Joseph	-	-	4%	27%	55%	13%
3	HECHT Joel	-	2%	15%	38%	36%	9%
3	RASK Galen	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
5	XU Andrew H.	-	-	1%	16%	50%	33%
6	SIELSKI Evan	-	8%	32%	45%	13%	1%
7	BISHOP Henry	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
8	SIMMONS Cole	-	6%	29%	46%	17%	1%
9	ALBRECHT-SMITH Anne	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-
10	SCIARROTTA Andy	17%	42%	32%	9%	-	-
11	SMITH Clara	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%	2%
12	ANDERSON Riley	6%	28%	42%	23%	2%	-
13	OBERDIEK Lucas	5%	37%	42%	15%	2%	-
14	RAHMAN Mosfiqur	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
15	LEE Logan	-	-	6%	38%	44%	12%
16	HOFFMAN Scott	4%	26%	46%	23%	1%	-
17	ALEXIS Jassen	-	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
18	HOUSE Edward	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	2%
19	LEE Joel	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
20	PINSKY Felix	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
21	SPECTER Luka	27%	44%	24%	5%	1%	-
22	OSTRIKOV Emilia	-	2%	18%	48%	27%	4%
23	YOUNG Kathryn	11%	34%	37%	15%	2%	-
24	KATCHUR Annika	7%	38%	45%	10%	1%	-
25	BARTH Eva	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
26	NUTH David	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
26	PEACOCK Bryant	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
28	STENSON Alyssa	19%	61%	19%	1%	-	-
29	KUMAR Ridhi	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
30	MERINOVA Veronica	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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