Swarthmore College Phoenix Cup C & Under

Div II Mixed Foil

Sunday, March 22, 2026 at 11:45 AM

Lamb-Miller Fieldhouse - Swarthmore, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 FLYNN Ian 100% 100% 100% 100% 93% 45%
2 PEARCE Joseph 100% 100% 100% 96% 69% 13%
3 HECHT Joel 100% 100% 98% 83% 45% 9%
3 RASK Galen 100% 97% 77% 39% 10% 1%
5 XU Andrew H. 100% 100% 100% 99% 83% 33%
6 SIELSKI Evan 100% 100% 92% 59% 14% 1%
7 BISHOP Henry 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 49%
8 SIMMONS Cole 100% 100% 93% 64% 18% 1%
9 ALBRECHT-SMITH Anne 100% 84% 47% 16% 3% -
10 SCIARROTTA Andy 100% 83% 41% 9% - -
11 SMITH Clara 100% 99% 88% 56% 18% 2%
12 ANDERSON Riley 100% 94% 66% 24% 2% -
13 OBERDIEK Lucas 100% 95% 58% 16% 2% -
14 RAHMAN Mosfiqur 100% 85% 47% 13% 2% -
15 LEE Logan 100% 100% 100% 94% 57% 12%
16 HOFFMAN Scott 100% 96% 70% 23% 1% -
17 ALEXIS Jassen 100% 100% 100% 96% 74% 28%
18 HOUSE Edward 100% 99% 88% 59% 21% 2%
19 LEE Joel 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 19%
20 PINSKY Felix 100% 48% 10% 1% - -
21 SPECTER Luka 100% 73% 29% 6% 1% -
22 OSTRIKOV Emilia 100% 100% 98% 79% 32% 4%
23 YOUNG Kathryn 100% 89% 55% 18% 2% -
24 KATCHUR Annika 100% 93% 55% 11% 1% -
25 BARTH Eva 100% 90% 60% 24% 5% -
26 NUTH David 100% 99% 90% 63% 27% 5%
26 PEACOCK Bryant 100% 99% 91% 67% 31% 6%
28 STENSON Alyssa 100% 81% 20% 2% - -
29 KUMAR Ridhi 100% 99% 92% 66% 28% 5%
30 MERINOVA Veronica 100% 82% 42% 12% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.