MFA Senior Mixed Friday Night Epee

Senior Mixed Épée

Friday, March 27, 2026 at 7:00 PM

Marin Fencing Academy - San Rafael, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAGKOPOULOS Pagkratios	1%	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
2	NICHOLSON Dimitri E.	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	IVANOV Nicholas	-	-	-	2%	19%	49%	31%
3	XU Yanwen	-	-	1%	11%	52%	31%	5%
5	NICHOLSON Dominic A.	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
6	SOULAIRE Tom	-	-	-	-	11%	49%	39%
7	DE BERNARDO Hugo	-	-	2%	19%	50%	30%
8	ONGSITCO Mark L.	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
9	PIVOVAROV Lucas	-	-	7%	38%	43%	12%
10	HEINS Dylan	-	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%
11	FELIX Alberto	-	-	7%	30%	43%	20%
12	OWENS Dinhan	11%	36%	37%	14%	1%	-	-
13	LIU Aaron	1%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	-
14	KORTZ Ash	-	1%	9%	25%	37%	24%	4%
15	BROWN-LEWIN Noah	4%	28%	43%	20%	3%	-	-
16	DENIER Frank	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%	1%
17	YU Brandon	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
18	CHU Zane	15%	45%	35%	5%	-	-	-
19	SIVASANKAR Aman	17%	66%	16%	1%	-	-
20	SLOAN Ryan	1%	9%	27%	35%	21%	6%	1%
21	GIBSON Ryder	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
22	FRANK Nathaniel	52%	39%	9%	-	-	-
23	KELLY Declan	2%	23%	52%	21%	3%	-
24	STEPHENS Jacob	1%	19%	46%	30%	3%	-	-
25	LACEY Catherine	23%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
26	PERALTA SR. Christian	18%	42%	32%	8%	-	-	-
27	ASTLE Stephen	11%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.