Connecticut Division Summer Nationals Qualifier

Div II Men's Foil

Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Sword in the Scroll Fencing Academy - Willimantic, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 GECKELER James 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 31%
2 BUCHAS James 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 36%
3 BOURNE Zane 100% 91% 60% 23% 4% - -
4 QUAN Noah 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 22%
5 MANCHALA Vedanth 100% 99% 90% 63% 26% 5%
6 HOWARD Fox 100% 100% 93% 67% 26% 4%
7 MINOR Payson 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 39% 7%
8 ULYSSE Jacob 100% 100% 99% 93% 66% 21%
9 ARSHAD Mohsin 100% 100% 95% 76% 39% 9%
10 LEWIS Lochlan 100% 96% 76% 40% 11% 1%
11 CARSELI Nicholas 100% 87% 52% 18% 3% - -
12 JEFF Ariff 100% 100% 98% 87% 51% 14% 1%
13 DAVIDSON Henry 100% 90% 54% 16% 2% -
14 JOHNSON Matthew 100% 95% 66% 25% 4% -
15 DEXTER Zebulon 100% 59% 17% 2% - -
16 HOWARD Mekai 100% 82% 42% 12% 2% - -
17 ST PIERRE Christian 100% 95% 71% 33% 8% 1%
18 HESTER Jaden 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 14% 1%
19 WONG Jasper 100% 64% 22% 4% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.