Challenge by the Bay RYC/RCC/Y8

Y-12 Men's Saber

Friday, April 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM

Power Sports Academy - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 CAO Chuck 7% 30% 41% 20% 2%
2 LI Jason - 1% 5% 20% 36% 30% 9%
3 LUO Gavin - - 1% 10% 31% 39% 18%
3 DUFF Michael - - 2% 13% 39% 45%
5 LEE Kyle - - - 2% 13% 39% 46%
6 LIU Franklin - 3% 19% 40% 30% 8% -
7 ZHANG Hanzel Missing ID
8 KURBANOV Tamir - 1% 7% 23% 37% 26% 7%
9 ZHANG Peter 1% 9% 27% 37% 22% 4%
10 NOWAKOWSKI Zachary - 2% 15% 38% 35% 9% -
11 LI Sky - 2% 12% 30% 34% 18% 3%
12 ZHENG Matt - - 2% 13% 34% 38% 14%
13 JECHA Zack Missing ID
14 LEE Caleb 8% 36% 38% 15% 2% - -
15 YUNG Nathan - - 3% 14% 33% 36% 14%
16 CHEN Donovan 13% 37% 35% 13% 2%
17 WHITE Marcus - 4% 19% 35% 29% 11% 1%
18 PICACHE Merrick 1% 11% 32% 35% 17% 4% -
19 TSIH Brendan 13% 36% 34% 14% 2% -
20 GALANG Aiden 4% 24% 46% 26% -
21 SUTER Matthias - - 3% 27% 71%
22 YAN Kaysen 1% 13% 34% 34% 14% 3% -
23 LIN Rongcheng Noah 14% 37% 34% 13% 2% -
24 WU Aiden 20% 43% 28% 8% 1% - -
25 KO Ryan - - 1% 11% 44% 39% 5%
26 BLACK Conall 6% 27% 37% 22% 6% 1% -
27 WONG Greyson 3% 23% 44% 26% 4% -
28 KANG Paul 31% 43% 21% 5% 1% - -
29 BRADEN Sage - 2% 11% 30% 37% 19% 3%
30 NGUYEN Tristan 29% 44% 22% 5% - - -
31 ZHANG Leon 9% 32% 37% 17% 4% - -
32 HSU Jupiter < 1% 6% 31% 41% 19% 2%
33 GUAN Ian 26% 45% 25% 4% -
34 LAN Rory 57% 35% 7% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.