Challenge by the Bay RYC/RCC/Y8

Y-12 Men's Saber

Friday, April 3, 2026 at 4:00 PM

Power Sports Academy - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 CAO Chuck 100% 93% 63% 22% 2%
2 LI Jason 100% 100% 99% 95% 75% 39% 9%
3 LUO Gavin 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 57% 18%
3 DUFF Michael 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 45%
5 LEE Kyle 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 46%
6 LIU Franklin 100% 100% 97% 78% 37% 8% -
7 ZHANG Hanzel Missing ID
8 KURBANOV Tamir 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 33% 7%
9 ZHANG Peter 100% 99% 90% 63% 26% 4%
10 NOWAKOWSKI Zachary 100% 100% 98% 82% 45% 9% -
11 LI Sky 100% 100% 98% 85% 55% 21% 3%
12 ZHENG Matt 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 52% 14%
13 JECHA Zack Missing ID
14 LEE Caleb 100% 92% 56% 18% 3% - -
15 YUNG Nathan 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 14%
16 CHEN Donovan 100% 87% 49% 14% 2%
17 WHITE Marcus 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 12% 1%
18 PICACHE Merrick 100% 99% 88% 57% 22% 4% -
19 TSIH Brendan 100% 87% 51% 17% 3% -
20 GALANG Aiden 100% 96% 72% 26% -
21 SUTER Matthias 100% 100% 100% 97% 71%
22 YAN Kaysen 100% 99% 85% 51% 17% 3% -
23 LIN Rongcheng Noah 100% 86% 49% 15% 2% -
24 WU Aiden 100% 80% 37% 9% 1% - -
25 KO Ryan 100% 100% 100% 99% 88% 44% 5%
26 BLACK Conall 100% 94% 67% 29% 7% 1% -
27 WONG Greyson 100% 97% 74% 30% 4% -
28 KANG Paul 100% 69% 27% 5% 1% - -
29 BRADEN Sage 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 21% 3%
30 NGUYEN Tristan 100% 71% 27% 5% - - -
31 ZHANG Leon 100% 91% 58% 22% 4% - -
32 HSU Jupiter 100% 100% 93% 62% 21% 2%
33 GUAN Ian 100% 74% 29% 4% -
34 LAN Rory 100% 43% 8% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.