Challenge by the Bay RYC/RCC/Y8

Y-14 Men's Saber

Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM

Power Sports Academy - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GRIGORIEV Roman	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	75%
2	SOULES-ONO Makoa	-	-	-	6%	37%	56%
3	ZEYU wu	-	-	2%	32%	66%
3	YANG Jake	-	8%	33%	43%	15%
5	LUC Linkin	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
6	MASAKI Alex	-	1%	6%	21%	38%	28%	6%
7	KIM Enoch	-	2%	16%	44%	38%
8	LEE Kyle	-	-	4%	25%	52%	19%
9	XU Ethan	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	1%	-
10	DUFF Michael	-	-	3%	16%	39%	36%	5%
12	TANG Morgan	-	-	13%	62%	24%
13	ORLINO Sam	2%	22%	63%	13%	1%
14	LI Sky	-	4%	25%	48%	20%	2%
15	XIE Jingwei	3%	31%	43%	20%	3%
16	KURBANOV Tamir	2%	25%	45%	24%	4%
17	CAO Chuck	-	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
18	ZHANG Peter	1%	9%	27%	37%	21%	4%	-
19	YU Albert	12%	42%	36%	9%	1%	-
20	CHEN Dylan	40%	51%	8%	-	-
22	VENKATRAMAN Sushil	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
23	CHEW Marcus	48%	42%	9%	1%	-	-	-
24	TOYOFUKU Lucas	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	8%	-
25	LI Jason	-	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
26	BLACK Conall	7%	35%	42%	14%	1%	-
28	PAVLENKOV Maxim	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
29	TSIH Brendan	13%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
30	WIEGMANN Liev	14%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
31	LORENTZEN Felix	42%	49%	9%	-	-
32	WU Aiden	74%	24%	3%	-	-
33	NGUYEN Tristan	48%	41%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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