7th Annual Precision Invitational RYC and RJCC

Cadet Men's Épée

Saturday, April 11, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MORIN-JIANG Jake	-	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
2	DENG Henry	1%	5%	21%	37%	29%	7%
3	XUE Michael	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
3	YIM Antonio	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
5	WANG Lucas	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
6	MAXU Tiger	-	-	3%	15%	36%	37%	10%
7	MOSLEY Wally	-	1%	7%	28%	44%	21%
8	MAI Sy	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
9	AVETISIAN Michael	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
10	DENG Destin	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%
11	DU Evan	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
12	LEE Lucas	-	2%	9%	25%	36%	23%	5%
13	WU Nathan	-	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
14	SCHWARTZMAN Ethan	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
15	PARRA Lucas	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
16	SUN Jiarui (Jerry)	1%	15%	36%	33%	13%	2%	-
17	ENG Kyler	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
18	GADHVI Darius	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
19	WANG Dylan	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%
20	LIN Daniel	1%	7%	26%	40%	22%	4%
21	RONG Marcus	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
22	ZHANG Michael	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
23	TAVERNA Matteo	11%	32%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
24	HUANG Eason	26%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
25	CHIEN Ian	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
26	SHETTY Rohit	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
27	SHIH Derek	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
28	HOBBS Fineas	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-	-
29	AUYEUNG Aedan Ho lam	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
30	YUN Nicholas	36%	41%	19%	4%	-	-
31	LIU Yihong	2%	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
32	BYUN Matthew	20%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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