2026 TCFC April Challenges

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, April 12, 2026 at 2:30 PM

Twin Cities Fencing Club - St. Paul, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KROPP Jack	-	-	-	48%	42%	10%
2	TOLLEFSON Zachary	-	-	2%	18%	51%	28%
3	OZANNE Jeffrey S.	-	-	8%	33%	45%	14%
3	CHO Joseph	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
5	TAKATA Benjamin	2%	15%	44%	39%
6	PERLENFEIN Tyler J.	-	3%	21%	45%	27%	3%
7	DRAWZ Chase	29%	49%	19%	3%	-
8	LIMER Avi	-	5%	26%	46%	23%
9	PREIDL Matthias	22%	47%	27%	4%
10	KUNJAN Lena R.	-	-	-	2%	33%	65%
11	SOTO Michael	29%	46%	22%	3%
12	YATES Graeme	3%	23%	45%	26%	4%
13	BISSEN Quinn	1%	13%	41%	35%	9%
14	OBERLY Nicholas	-	-	5%	33%	61%
15	LEUNG Matthias	12%	37%	38%	13%	-	-
16	PETERSON Penelope	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-
17	SANFORD Wesley	-	4%	33%	50%	12%
18	LEE Wilson	11%	36%	38%	15%	1%	-
19	BENGTSON Jasmine	10%	36%	39%	13%	1%	-
20	CAVEN Emerald	17%	45%	33%	5%	-	-
21	HONEK Kyle	1%	9%	40%	39%	12%	-
22	ROBBINS Christopher (Chris) W.	8%	33%	43%	16%
23	STOLTZ Chase	-	4%	15%	33%	34%	14%
24	JORGENSEN Kjirsten	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
24	MINGO Ron	1%	20%	44%	29%	6%	-
26	AURÈLIUS Adel	-	-	1%	14%	44%	41%
27	JOHN Elsa	61%	34%	5%	-	-
28	RUBIN Joshua	37%	46%	15%	2%	-
29	WILLER Ryan	17%	41%	33%	9%	-	-
31	JORGENSEN Rebekah	14%	51%	31%	4%	-
32	TELCI Arya	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
33	MIEST Davis	37%	50%	12%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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