Middlebury Open-31st Edition

Veteran Mixed Épée

Sunday, April 12, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Middlebury Union Middle School - South Burlington, VT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ELBAG Mark H.	-	-	1%	10%	37%	51%
2	BUSH Thomas	-	-	1%	5%	24%	45%	25%
3	CHOI Paul S.	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	12%
3	STEWART Robert	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
5	PHAIR Meghan D.	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
6	BOLDUC Patrice	-	-	4%	29%	47%	21%
7	LAROCHELLE Bastien	-	3%	21%	43%	28%	4%
8	BERNARD Erwann	-	2%	11%	26%	33%	22%	6%
9	ZHANG Qing	1%	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
10	SISE Camilla R.	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%
11	LUSSIER Jesse B.	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
12	WALTING Paul J.	-	4%	19%	40%	31%	5%
13	NGUYEN Thanh H.	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
14	FREITAS Carlos	-	4%	18%	39%	32%	7%
15	ZIMMERMAN Robert	10%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
16	LELAND James (Jim) E.	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
17	MEAGHER Roderick	2%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%
18	RUGGLES William R.	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
19	ROUSE Joseph (Joe) T.	-	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
20	SCHUPPE Ray W.	2%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
21	KROHN Matthew	14%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-
22	PEARSALL William	5%	31%	41%	19%	4%	-
23	D'SOUZA Carlisle (Charlie) J.	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
24	BIXBY Peter W.	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
25	POWERFREEMAN Mark	9%	32%	38%	17%	3%	-
26	GLAZER Adam	16%	35%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
27	FERLAND Brent	11%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
28	WHEELER Michele L.	31%	48%	18%	3%	-	-
28	SIRBU Aurelia	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
30	KASTANAS Stamatia Tina	44%	43%	12%	1%	-	-
31	FOX Viveka R.	8%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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