Event Results

Div I Elite Men's Saber

October NACSurprise Map

Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 8:00 AM Orange County Convention Center · Orlando, FL, USA
114 finishers
Difficulty Upsets Pool Heatmap Strength
Birth year

Outcome Surprises

Legend

Green wins and red losses stand out more as the result becomes less expected.

# Name Bout Difficulty vs. Outcome Pool Victories
Pool DE Exp. Act. Diff.
1 ERMAKOV Semeon V V V V V V V V V V V V 3.5 6 +2.5
2 LI Howard V V D V V V V V V V V D 3.5 5 +1.5
3 THOMPSON Khalil A. V V V V V V V V V V D 5.8 6 +0.2
3 SARON Mitchell S. V V V V V V V V V V D 5.8 6 +0.2
5 HOMER Daryl D. V V V D V V V V V D 5.9 5 -0.9
6 LEE Noah V V V V V D V V V D 3.0 5 +2.0
7 GONZALEZ Emilio A. V V V V D V V V V D 4.7 5 +0.3
8 HOLZ Daniel V V V D D V V V V D 4.8 4 -0.8
9 ANTHONY Devyn V. V V V V V V V D 3.6 5 +1.4
10 PRIMUS Nazir V V V V V V V D 4.1 5 +0.9
11 GUFFEY Christopher V V V V V V V D 2.5 5 +2.5
12 HUANG Alex F. V V D V V V V V D 3.0 5 +2.0
13 PAN Jerry V V V V D D V V D 4.9 4 -0.9
14 TSE Aiden J D V V D V V V V D 3.3 3 -0.3
15 ELARABY Mazen V D D V V V V V D 3.9 3 -0.9
16 BERRIO Carter E. V D V V D D V V V D 3.4 3 -0.4
17 BEN AVRAM Lev V V V V V D V D 5.2 5 -0.2
18 ESCUETA Tony V. V V D V V V V D 3.0 5 +2.0
19 SHOMAN Noah D V D V V V V D 3.3 4 +0.7
20 CHOI Silas V V V D V D V D 4.8 4 -0.8
21 BELL III Alfred (Tripp) R. D V V V V D V D 1.7 4 +2.3
22 SKARBONKIEWICZ Maksymilian A. V V D V V D V D 3.2 4 +0.8
23 TENG MATTHEW D V D V V V V D 2.9 4 +1.1
24 HUANG Ethan F. V V D D V V V D 4.2 4 -0.2
25 JI Cody Walter V D V V D V V D 4.8 4 -0.8
26 YAN William V V D V D V V D 2.4 4 +1.6
27 SIERADZKY Dawson D D V V V V V D 3.7 4 +0.3
28 ASLAN Tolga V V V D D V V D 4.3 4 -0.3
29 HWANG Jayden D V V D V V V V D 2.4 4 +1.6
30 JOO Jeein D D D V V V V V D 3.8 3 -0.8
31 TE VELDE Noah C. D V D V V D V V D 3.9 3 -0.9
32 KANG Evan R. D D D D V V V V D 2.1 2 -0.1
33 LIM William J. V V V V V D 3.8 5 +1.2
34 SKEETE Kamar A. V D V V V V D 5.3 5 -0.3
35 KIM Shaun M. V V V D V V D 4.3 5 +0.7
36 KANG Matthew V V V D V D 1.6 4 +2.4
37 NG Jonathan D D V V V V D 3.8 4 +0.2
38 ZHAO Lucas D D V V V V D 2.9 4 +1.1
39 DESROSIERS Olivier V D D V V V D 5.0 4 -1.0
40 SCHARDINE James V V V V D D D 2.8 4 +1.2
41 KIM Kendrick V D V D V V D 2.6 4 +1.4
42 CARRINGTON IV William T. V D V V D V D 2.1 4 +1.9
42 KITSON Chase V D V D V V D 1.7 4 +2.3
44 YANG Phillip V D V V D V D 2.3 3 +0.7
45 WANG Tiger D V D V V V D 1.1 3 +1.9
46 FIGUEREDO Adrian V V D V D V D 3.1 3 -0.1
47 CIEMINS Henry V V D V D V D 1.5 3 +1.5
48 LIN Maxim V D V D V V D 2.9 3 +0.1
49 ANDRES Michael V D V V D V D 2.4 3 +0.6
50 NORRIS Roman V V D V D D V D 3.7 3 -0.7
51 ROBINSON William V V V D D D V D 3.1 3 -0.1
52 ATANASSOV Vasil V. V V D D V D V D 4.2 3 -1.2
53 KIM Ethan D V D D V V V D 3.0 3 -
54 NAZLYMOV Andrei V V V D D D V D 4.3 3 -1.3
55 HOLZ Lucas D D V V D V V D 1.6 3 +1.4
56 CHEONG Heonjun V V D D D V D 3.0 2 -1.0
57 HENDERSON Lucas D V V D D V D 1.5 2 +0.5
58 WOOD Elden S. D D D V V V D 4.3 2 -2.3
59 RIGHTLER Samuel V D V D D V D 1.9 2 +0.1
60 LUKASHENKO Darii D D V D D V V D 5.0 2 -3.0
61 ZHAO Zhiyu(Yogi) D D D D V V V D 2.4 2 -0.4
62 CHON Collin V D D D V D V D 3.2 2 -1.2
63 LAUB William D V V D D D V D 2.5 2 -0.5
64 PAVLENISHVILI Luke V D V D D D V D 1.7 2 +0.3
65 CAO Oliver V V D V V D D 2.6 4 +1.4
66 RAMANAN Govind V D D V V D 2.1 3 +0.9
67 CHAVES Matthew J. V V D D V D D 2.6 3 +0.4
68 HONG Rubin D V V D V D D 3.5 3 -0.5
69 LI Yiwei D V D V D V D 2.4 3 +0.6
70 GONG Alex D V V V D D D 1.4 3 +1.6
70 BIVIJI Ali D D V V V D D 1.8 3 +1.2
72 BRIMMER Robert (Trey) D V D V D V D 2.5 3 +0.5
73 YEN Darren D D D V V D 3.8 2 -1.8
74 KOVALEV Daniil N. D D V D V D 1.4 2 +0.6
75 CAO Donald D D V V D D 1.6 2 +0.4
76 WANG Nicolas D D V V D D 3.4 2 -1.4
77 PINTO Marcus D V D D V D 1.7 2 +0.3
78 PORTER Dupree D D D V D V D 1.6 2 +0.4
79 GONZALEZ Jake D D V D V D D 2.5 2 -0.5
80 LIN Daniel D D V D V D D 3.3 2 -1.3
81 SANCHEZ Jacob D V D D V D D 2.8 2 -0.8
82 WANG Samuel V V D D D D D 2.7 2 -0.7
82 AGARWAAL Yohan V D D V D D D 1.9 2 +0.1
84 ALAVE Kyle V D V D D D D 1.2 2 +0.8
85 HJERPE Wade H. V D V D D D D 3.2 2 -1.2
86 OH Aster D V V D D D D 2.1 2 -0.1
87 IYER Neil D V D V D D D 1.6 2 +0.4
88 WANG Daniel D D D V V D D 2.3 2 -0.3
88 JI Johnson D V D V D D D 1.8 2 +0.2
90 ZHANG Kaixuan D V V D D D D 1.2 2 +0.8
91 LIN Philip T. D V D D D V D 1.2 2 +0.8
92 FALCON-KORB Mathis D V D D D V D 2.4 2 -0.4
93 KUSHKOV Daniel D D D D V V 2.9 2 -0.9
93 TSAO Oliver D D D V V D 1.5 2 +0.5
93 SANGSTER Arden V D V D D D 2.0 2 -
96 CHAMBERS Miles D D D V V D 2.1 2 -0.1
97 WESLER Logan A. D D V D V D 2.4 2 -0.4
98 DENNER Max P. D D V D D V 4.1 2 -2.1
99 KIM ELIJAH D V D D D 2.9 1 -1.9
100 CHUNG Connor D V D D D 2.7 1 -1.7
101 BAI Evan D D V D D 1.3 1 -0.3
102 MIYASAKI-CASTRO Masanobu D V D D D 2.3 1 -1.3
103 LI Ayden D D D D V 2.0 1 -1.0
104 CHEN Jonathan V D D D D 1.5 1 -0.5
105 LEE Brian D D V D D D 1.3 1 -0.3
106 WEI Rian D D D D D V 2.8 1 -1.8
107 LUCAS William D D D D D V 1.2 1 -0.2
108 VAID Luke V D D D D D 2.5 1 -1.5
108 TOZZI Massimo D D D V D D 1.0 1 -
110 BOOTH Zaheer D D D D V D 3.9 1 -2.9
111 GREMILLION Obadiah D D D D D D 1.3 0 -1.3
112 RAMANAN Jaisimh D D D D D D 2.7 0 -2.7
113 LI Alex Y. D D D D D 1.5 0 -1.5
114 BARTOLO Domenic V. D D D D D D 2.3 0 -2.3

Legend

Color Outcome Difficulty Win Probability
Victory Very Hard 0% to 20%
Victory Hard 20% to 40%
Victory Roughly Even 40% to 60%
Victory Easy 60% to 80%
Victory Very Easy 80% to 100%
Defeat Very Hard 0% to 20%
Defeat Hard 20% to 40%
Defeat Roughly Even 40% to 60%
Defeat Easy 60% to 80%
Defeat Very Easy 80% to 100%