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Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, January 18, 2020 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NAYGAS LAWRENCE I.	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
2	SADOVSKY Leor B.	-	-	4%	34%	46%	16%
3	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	-	5%	26%	45%	24%
3	SIU Aiden	1%	5%	21%	36%	29%	8%
5	LLIDO Soren	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
6	WONG Antonio	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
7	LEE Dylan	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	7%
8	PARK Gabriel	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
9	LIEW Harrison C.	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
10	CHOI Ethan	-	-	1%	14%	45%	41%
11	WANG Logan	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
12	DE LA FUENTE Ian	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
13	ASHJIAN Nicolas	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	15%
14	KHVANG Sebastien T.	4%	21%	38%	27%	8%	1%
15	OH Jaden	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
16	BAUER Roman	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
17	DINSAY Kristjan	-	3%	21%	41%	28%	6%
18	NORIEGA Julian	-	-	5%	34%	46%	15%
19	SEIGEL Duncan	11%	37%	39%	12%	1%	-
20	ULLOA Trent J.	6%	33%	47%	12%	1%	-
21	KETTELLE John	-	4%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%
22	KIM Aiden	3%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
23	PARK Sky	-	4%	18%	39%	31%	8%
24	YI William	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
24	NGUYEN martin	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-
26	DING SHENGLANG	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
27	KIM Luke	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
28	WU James	57%	35%	7%	-	-	-
29	SINGH Jahan	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
30	DINO Julian	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
31	PONS Diego	8%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
32	LEE Jaeho	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
33	ALVES Austin	22%	45%	28%	5%	-	-
34	PUPPALLA Pranay	6%	37%	40%	14%	2%	-
34	ANWEILER Nathan	3%	23%	40%	27%	7%	-
36	PONTOPPIDAN Erik	29%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
37	MONTGOMERY Georgie	25%	46%	25%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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