Gold Finch ROC (D1, D2 and Vet) and Non-Regional Junior and Cadet

Div II Men's Saber

Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 12:00 PM

Manalapan, NJ - Manalapan, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NIL Michael Y.	-	-	-	2%	16%	44%	37%
2	CHAMBERS Amir E.	-	-	-	1%	8%	38%	53%
3	NG Jonathan H.	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
3	LEVIN Mark A.	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
5	CHAN Daniel	-	-	4%	16%	33%	34%	13%
6	MOLINA Nicholas (Nico) G.	-	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	13%
7	GHOSH Tuhin	-	1%	10%	34%	44%	12%
8	LASORSA Matthew	-	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	21%
9	GILLIGAN Wolff	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
10	MOSKOWITZ Mason C.	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
11	HAMMER Peter A.	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
12	LEE Jude H.	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
13	WALKER Robert Connor	-	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%
13	YUAN Kevin	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	7%
13	ZHOU Miles	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
16	SANDERS Samuel B.	2%	19%	41%	30%	7%	-
17	CHERNAEV Aleksandar	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
18	TSODIKOV Matthew G.	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
19	BUCHMANN Finn D.	-	5%	22%	37%	28%	7%
20	LEDERER Justin W.	5%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%
21	LEMPERT Levy A.	1%	7%	26%	37%	24%	5%
22	GOLD Jackson	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%	1%
23	BOURGHOL Matthew	-	4%	19%	39%	30%	8%	-
24	XU Michael	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
25	HAN Daniel Y.	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
26	ROSEN Ben	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	-	-
27	ZELAYA Jayson	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
28	CHENG Kyle	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
29	DEPEW Spencer	40%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
30	KREGER Evan	5%	22%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
31	PANDEY Neil	1%	12%	33%	36%	15%	2%	-
32	RAUSCHER Ryan	1%	10%	31%	37%	19%	3%
33	MARGULIES William	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%	1%
34	BURDAN Gabriel	4%	23%	41%	25%	6%	1%	-
35	KAOURIS George	1%	10%	33%	39%	16%	2%
36	TIERNO Thomas J.	53%	36%	9%	1%	-	-
37	WEBER Mattias A.	13%	40%	33%	12%	2%	-
38	RUDNET Noah	51%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
39	FISK Ethan	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
40	CHAMBERS Thomas J.	18%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-
41	WONG Ryan	1%	10%	28%	34%	20%	6%	1%
42	ONION Marc	37%	42%	18%	3%	-	-	-
43	ZHANG Yankun	29%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
44	GEORGE Daniel	11%	41%	36%	11%	1%	-
45	HEKMAT Sina R.	10%	50%	33%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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