Mission RJCC #1 | Epee & Men's Sabre ONLY - Reg Opens 9/15

Cadet Men's Saber

Sunday, October 25, 2020 at 3:15 PM

Rocky Point, NY - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BERMAN Luca	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	12%
2	WILSON Jude	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
3	MORRILL William	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
3	DENG Andrew	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	4%
5	MORRILL Justin	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
6	MEDVEDEV Michail D.	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
7	BABAYEV Gabriel A.	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
7	BLEYMAN David	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
9	EDELMAN Seth A.	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
10	SAVOY Luca	3%	17%	35%	31%	13%	2%
11	ELIN Adam E.	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
12	HONG Vincent Q.	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
13	HO Kaden M.	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	18%
14	UH Daniel	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-
15	ZHENG Edward L.	-	2%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%
16	KIM Shaun M.	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
17	BROU Inkosi	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	2%
18	WEBER Mattias A.	7%	27%	36%	23%	7%	1%
19	OVERDECK Andrew	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	3%	-
20	HUANG Tom	4%	24%	38%	25%	8%	1%	-
21	MCCARTHY Gabriel	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
22	HAN Daniel Y.	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
23	NOURELDIN Gabriel	-	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
24	PIWOWAR Alex	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
25	ZENG Noah	-	2%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%
26	MICHNA Colin P.	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
27	WONG Ryan	1%	9%	28%	39%	21%	2%
27	ALTIRS Alexander	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
29	HUANG Tyler T.	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
30	SHTEYN Mark	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
31	GOLDMAN Noah R.	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
32	POSY Daniel	37%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
33	HUANG Maxwell H.	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%
34	LIU Mingyang Ryan	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
35	WANG Robert	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
36	DOLAN Charles R.	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%
37	BRIDGES Benjamin	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
38	BIDWELL Ryder	11%	36%	36%	14%	3%	-	-
39	TANG Charles	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-	-
40	SANDERS Samuel B.	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
41	LEONARD Charles	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%
42	MICLAUS Justin	5%	24%	38%	26%	7%	-
43	MOULTON Ian	28%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
44	MORALES Jonathan	16%	35%	31%	14%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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