The Orlando Challenge RYC & RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, February 8, 2020 at 8:00 AM

Orlando, FL - Orlando, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WILLIAMS Connor J.	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
2	JITTAN daniel	-	-	-	1%	16%	82%
3	GATZA Logan	-	-	1%	9%	42%	49%
3	MAHRAN-GALINDO Alex	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
5	SAGE Michael J.	-	1%	12%	37%	38%	12%
6	LOVE Aaron	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
7	ZHENG zhe	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
8	WECHSLER Jacob	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
9	DERBAUM Ryan	-	-	1%	12%	49%	37%
10	DEGROOT Blake	-	-	4%	19%	37%	32%	8%
11	GIBBS Grant N.	-	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%
12	HEARN Christen J.	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	12%	-
13	ELWOOD Sebastian F.	-	-	1%	10%	49%	41%
14	LONG Connor M.	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	16%	2%
15	ROSE Ben	2%	12%	33%	37%	16%	1%
16	ROSS III Paul D.	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%	1%
17	DE COQUET Maximilian	12%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-
18	TIKHAEV Alexander	2%	17%	40%	34%	6%	-
19	WANG Winston	11%	34%	36%	16%	2%	-
20	BUCHENHORST Anton	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%	-
21	REYES Manuel A	-	-	-	2%	13%	42%	43%
22	VIANNA Guilherme	-	6%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
23	TANG Albert	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	2%
24	LEE Jacob	-	7%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
25	ARIZA Abraham J.	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
26	RIVERA IVAN	3%	19%	40%	31%	7%	-
27	HOGGARD Carson	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-
28	LAKATIS Jake	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
29	QUINTERO Julian	14%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-
30	KHAN Ahyaan	1%	16%	37%	33%	12%	1%
31	ORLOV Dmitriy	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
32	PAN Henry	17%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
33	HUANG Eythan	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
34	HUANG Justin	33%	44%	20%	3%	-	-
35	CABRERA Isaac	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
36	LEE Lukas	2%	14%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
37	RODRIGUEZ Jr. Jorge	6%	28%	42%	22%	3%	-
38	FORSYTH Patrick	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
39	ANAND Aayush	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
40	HITT Aiden	4%	22%	37%	26%	9%	2%	-
41	EMILIANI Andres	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
42	KIM Matthew	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
43	BATRA Dev	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
44	CHEN Junxuan	14%	42%	34%	9%	1%	-
45	CUNANAN Ethan	57%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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