The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Punxsutawney Phil Pizza Party C & Under - E,F,S

Div II Mixed Épée

Saturday, February 1, 2020 at 6:00 PM

South Denver Fencing Academy - Centennial, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	AHAUS Viktoria	-	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	2%
2	GIRARD Michael	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	14%
3	LI Patrick	-	3%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
3	KENT IV David	-	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%
5	SOLTER Kai	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
6	CELECKI Barrett	-	-	-	2%	12%	38%	48%
7	TIBBETTS Johnathan	-	-	1%	8%	31%	47%	12%
8	STRAUSS Luke	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	16%	2%
9	LUNA MARTINEZ Luis	-	1%	11%	39%	36%	11%	1%
10	MOSKOFF Tessa	-	1%	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
11	STAROSTA Aidan	-	-	3%	17%	35%	33%	11%
12	BURCH Tristan H.	1%	14%	38%	33%	11%	1%	-
13	BARON Sabina	1%	7%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
14	EVANS Tyler	1%	10%	26%	35%	22%	6%	-
15	SATTERFIELD Donald	-	-	1%	13%	38%	40%	8%
16	MEIKLE Andrew W.	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
17	ERKENBECK Nathan M.	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
18	CLAYMAN John A.	-	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%
19	HENDRICK Heidi M.	-	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%
20	LETTANG John	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
21	COFFEY Jacob	-	2%	10%	28%	37%	21%	3%
22	BARLOW Jason P.	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	4%	-
23	ERKENBECK Zoe R.	4%	27%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
24	KENT Elizabeth J.	1%	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-
25	EBELL Ivan D.	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
26	FOULKS Caleb	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%	-
27	SPATZ Kenneth	12%	41%	35%	11%	1%	-	-
28	SAINT-PHARD Shana	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%	-
29	TORRES Nicolas	2%	22%	38%	27%	9%	2%	-
30	CHEN Nicole Y.	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
31	LESSARD Luc	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-
32	GREGORY Alex	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
33	LUTTON Patricia	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-	-
34	BULK Sierra	67%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-
35	HARBIN Layla L.	17%	36%	30%	13%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.