The Durkan Rooster Div 1A ROC Reg Opens 12/1

Div I-A Men's Saber

Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 12:00 PM

Garfield, NJ - Garfield, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YEN Darren	-	-	-	1%	10%	47%	42%
2	BARNETT Adam	-	-	2%	14%	42%	41%
3	GETS Matthew D.	-	5%	19%	36%	31%	9%
3	CZYZEWSKI Konrad R.	-	2%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%
5	BIERNACKI Maciej L.	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	55%
6	SHI Andrew	-	-	3%	19%	45%	34%
7	MORREALE John	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	14%
8	ERACHSHAW Cyrus P.	-	2%	19%	40%	31%	7%	-
9	BASALYGA Jeffrey	-	-	-	7%	35%	58%
10	DEGEORGES Cole C.	-	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%
11	YEN Preston	-	1%	14%	40%	35%	9%
12	NG Jeremiah	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
13	ERACHSHAW Taras P.	-	-	-	9%	42%	49%
14	JACOBSON Matthew A.	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
15	ALTIRS Alexander	-	4%	23%	40%	26%	6%	-
16	BULL Anderson	1%	12%	44%	33%	9%	1%
17	WILSON Jude	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
18	HONG Vincent Q.	-	2%	19%	52%	24%	3%
19	HAST Kern R.	-	3%	19%	42%	30%	6%
20	MARGULIES William	1%	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
21	MOLINA Nicholas (Nico) G.	-	-	2%	21%	52%	24%
22	HUANG Ethan F.	2%	15%	34%	34%	13%	2%
23	RAUSCHER Ryan	-	3%	19%	42%	32%	4%
24	HUANG Tyler T.	8%	37%	38%	15%	2%	-
25	GREENE Alexander J.	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	26%	4%
26	COLE Alexander	-	2%	16%	36%	34%	12%	1%
27	DENG Andrew	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-
28	CHEN Evan P.	10%	38%	40%	11%	1%	-
29	BUCCINO George	35%	45%	17%	2%	-	-
30	LIU Mingyang Ryan	2%	16%	42%	32%	9%	-
31	YAO Jonathan	-	1%	10%	35%	41%	14%
32	GHAYALOD ansh	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	-
33	CADAMBI Roshan	19%	53%	23%	4%	-	-
34	LEDERER Justin W.	14%	34%	33%	15%	4%	-	-
35	DA GRACA Aidan	1%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%	-
36	GILPIN Samuel	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
37	EAVES Jude	17%	53%	28%	2%	-	-
38	MOULTON Ian	21%	54%	22%	3%	-	-	-
39	YUAN Kevin	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
40	MIRDALA Drew	29%	44%	23%	4%	-	-
41	ALTIRS Giorgio	10%	50%	32%	7%	1%	-
42	FLITSANOV Macabee	55%	38%	6%	-	-	-	-
43	WRUBEL Natan G.	60%	36%	4%	-	-	-
44	KEOGH Jonathan	23%	48%	24%	5%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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