Thrust Summer RYC/RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Saturday, August 14, 2021 at 4:00 PM

Jersey City, NJ - Jersey City, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	-	-	7%	36%	56%
2	EYER Hailey M.	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
3	WU Julianna Y.	-	-	1%	9%	34%	41%	15%
3	LI Rachel Y.	-	-	1%	9%	39%	50%
5	WU Irene M.	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	11%
6	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	13%
7	XUE Alanna L.	-	-	3%	19%	47%	30%
8	PAHLAVI Dahlia	-	-	3%	19%	47%	32%
9	SHENG Chuxi	3%	19%	38%	30%	8%	1%
10	HUANG NATALIE	-	1%	9%	37%	42%	10%
11	LIAO Lu Jia (Lucy)	-	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
12	DU Hannah	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
13	ZHENG Julie	-	2%	13%	36%	38%	11%
14	SHA Yi Ling	-	5%	25%	43%	23%	3%
15	XIANG Emma	-	3%	18%	42%	32%	4%
16	YU Lauren C.	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
17	WANG Jasmine	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
18	WANG Ashley	-	5%	25%	43%	24%	2%
19	HSIEH Rebecca	3%	25%	44%	24%	4%	-
20	HOU Wendong	9%	37%	40%	12%	1%	-
21	ZHAO Aileen Y.	-	1%	8%	33%	45%	14%
22	COSTELLO Angeline S.	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
23	MARKOVSKY Nina	1%	9%	32%	38%	17%	2%
24	THIRUVENGADAM Harini	7%	31%	42%	17%	2%	-
25	LUH Mia P.	6%	38%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
26	SHMAY Anastasia	-	9%	33%	40%	15%	2%	-
27	FU Qihan	-	1%	15%	45%	33%	5%
28	ASCHETTINO Aurora	1%	18%	50%	26%	4%	-
29	CHEN Jasmine	15%	38%	33%	12%	1%	-
30	HATZOGLU Isabella	18%	54%	24%	4%	-	-
31	MEYER Claudia	15%	41%	34%	9%	1%	-
31	MUSTO Isabella	11%	34%	37%	16%	2%	-
33	LEE Kaitlyn	23%	45%	25%	6%	1%	-
34	SCARLETT Skye	32%	45%	19%	3%	-	-
35	MENON Rhea	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
36	HSIEH Sabrina	60%	35%	5%	-	-	-
37	TANG Sophia	68%	28%	4%	-	-	-
38	LIN Victoria T.	2%	19%	43%	30%	7%	1%	-
39	PAULUS Isabella	20%	45%	29%	6%	-	-
40	MENDEZ Jalena	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
41	LENZ Zoe N.	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
42	BIENSTOCK Alexis	3%	34%	43%	18%	3%	-
43	CHEN Miley	70%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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